Mineral Monopoly 🪨

"More than an end to war, we want an end to the beginning of all wars," stated Franklin D. Roosevelt in his last message to the American people during the peak of World War II. While history remembers the might of American troops and the dominance of its naval fleet, what’s often forgotten is how a lesser-known mineral — antimony – quietly shaped the outcome of that war.

Antimony did not find its place in either the heroic speeches or the history books when the war ended. But it was everywhere in the battle. Mixed with lead, it made bullets and shells harder, stronger, and more reliable on the battlefield. It powered the lead-acid batteries inside tanks, trucks, submarines, and communication equipment. 

And it was the United States — the world's leading producer of antimony —  that was quietly changing the outcome of the war with its sheer capacity to produce this valuable mineral. According to a U.S. Trade Representative Report, nearly 90% of antimony demand was met during the war through domestic production. 

So, what became of the mineral that once helped the Allied forces win the war?

Nearly 80 years after World War II, despite antimony’s continued use across industries — including military applications — the United States no longer produces any considerable amount domestically! The country now depends almost entirely on imports to meet its antimony needs.

And who controls the lion’s share of this supply? China.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, China accounts for nearly 48% of global antimony production and supplies about 63% of U.S. imports.

It’s not just antimony; the United States has grown heavily dependent on foreign sources for almost all critical minerals, and China has quietly positioned itself as the kingpin of the global critical mineral supply chain.

The result: Today, the United States finds itself in a very different kind of war. One that FDR could never have imagined — a battle to secure critical mineral supply chains.

In this issue of CrossDock, we’ll break down why critical minerals matter more than ever, how China quietly became the superpower of the critical minerals supply chain, what steps the United States is now taking to reduce this dependence, and how the rest of the world is reacting to China’s dominance in this high-stakes mineral race.

Let’s first begin from….

Critical minerals are a group of elements considered essential to the economic and national security of a country, but whose supply is vulnerable to disruption. These minerals include lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements like neodymium and dysprosium, graphite, nickel, and many others. 

Today, these critical minerals have become extremely important because they power the modern economy — literally and figuratively. For example, these minerals are indispensable in manufacturing electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, semiconductors, defense equipment, satellites, and even medical devices.

The importance of critical minerals has grown exponentially in the last decade due to the global transition to clean energy, and the recent race to build AI chips has further made the demand for critical minerals skyrocket. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that demand for critical minerals used in electric vehicle batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines will grow by as much as 400-600% by 2040. And for lithium alone, demand is expected to increase by over 40 times by 2040. 

To see how critical minerals power the technologies around us, look no further than electric vehicles. 

Let’s consider the case of Tesla. As per Tesla’s 2023 Impact Report, each EV fundamentally depends on a range of critical minerals. Its batteries contain significant quantities of lithium, nickel, and cobalt; the anodes are composed of graphite; and the electric motors incorporate rare earth elements.

Not just EVs. Every modern gadget with a microchip – smartphone, laptop, AI servers, or even a washing machine — relies heavily on critical minerals like gallium, germanium, tantalum, tungsten, cobalt, and palladium. 

Interestingly, the use of critical minerals isn’t limited to electric vehicles or smartphones — they’re just as crucial in the defense world. 

Take the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jet, for example. Each jet requires around 920 pounds of rare earth minerals, according to Pentagon reports. In fact, the U.S. Department of Defense states that it needs nearly all 17 rare earth elements in the periodic table in some capacity to build and operate its military systems.

What makes these minerals “critical” is not just their industrial importance but also the risks associated with their supply chains. In 2024, the U.S. remained heavily dependent on China — a country it considers a strategic competitor — for many of these critical minerals (50 minerals according to USGS).

China was the leading supplier of 21 critical minerals, the highest of all countries. For several essential minerals — such as graphite, gallium, yttrium, rubidium, tantalum, and rare earth elements — the U.S. relied on China for 80% to 100% of its imports. The U.S. sourced over half of its imports for more than 40% of its critical minerals from China.

The European Union is also in a similar situation. According to the European Council, the EU is 100% dependent on China for its heavy rare earth elements supply.

This brings us to the next important question: How did China become a dominant force in the global critical minerals supply chain? 

In 1987, then-Chinese President Deng Xiaoping famously said, “The Middle East has oil. China has rare earths.” Nearly 35 years after he said this, China today dominates the critical minerals production and processing market. It is currently producing around 60% of rare earth elements and processing approximately 80% of the world's critical minerals.

China's dominance in the global critical minerals supply chain has been the result of decades of aggressive industrial policy and state-backed investment projects that helped it control both the mining and processing of these minerals. 

China was one of the first countries to realize that whoever controls these rare earth minerals controls the future of clean energy and technology. One of the biggest strategic weapons that China used to get a grip on the global critical minerals market was its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project. 

According to the report Power Playbook: Beijing's Bid to Secure Overseas Transition Minerals, China invested nearly $57 billion between 2000 and 2021 through loans and financial assistance to support mining projects across 19 BRI partner countries. By 2024, China's involvement in the metals and mining sector under the BRI had reached an all-time high of $21.4 billion, making up almost 18% of its total BRI investments that year.

Some of the significant examples are, in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chinese companies secured access to vast reserves of bauxite and cobalt in exchange for infrastructure investments. 

In 2024 alone, China’s engagement in mining projects soared across Africa and Latin America, with countries like Liberia and Guinea witnessing BRI engagement growth of over 1,900% year-on-year, according to the China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2024 published by Griffith University. 

It’s not just the mining process that China dominates. In fact, its real grip lies in the refining and processing of critical minerals, the most crucial and value-adding stage in the supply chain. 

Today, China refines 68% of the world’s nickel, 40% of copper, 59% of lithium, and 73% of cobalt. Its dominance doesn’t stop there. It also controls 70% of global cathode production, 85% of anode production, and a staggering 78% of the world’s EV battery cell manufacturing capacity.

By controlling the refining and manufacturing choke points, China holds the power to shape global demand and pricing, leaving other countries at its mercy.

Let’s look at more recent examples. 

In December 2024, China blocked exports of key minerals like antimony, gallium, and germanium to the U.S., citing security reasons after Washington imposed restrictions on tech exports to China. Many of these restrictions were aimed at slowing down the U.S. progress in AI chip manufacturing.

In February 2025, after President Trump announced his new tariffs – an additional 10% on China – it hit back with export restrictions on tungsten, bismuth, and other critical minerals. And the prices for these materials shot up immediately. Case in point: Bismuth saw a near-500% surge in prices immediately after the restrictions were announced. 

So, what is the United States doing to push back against China’s grip on the mineral supply chain?

It’s worth noting that the seeds to counter China’s mineral supremacy were sown during President Biden’s tenure, marked by concrete investments, funding support, and new laws aimed at rebuilding America’s critical mineral supply chain.

In 2022, President Biden invoked the Defense Production Act to boost domestic production of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, etc. The administration committed over $2.8 billion in grants to companies building battery-grade processing plants and mineral facilities across the U.S. 

It also signed the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes nearly $370 billion in clean energy incentives. The IRA came with a clear condition: EV tax credits and subsidies would only apply to batteries sourced from the U.S. or its allies, aiming to break China’s monopoly over time.

The push for domestic production of critical minerals has become a rare bipartisan issue—one that has found strong support in President Trump’s policies as well. 

On March 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to boost America’s domestic mineral production. Through the executive order, the Trump administration aims to achieve two things.

One is to eliminate dependence on China, a country that is both a political and economic adversary of the United States. Secondly, there are barely any American companies that are into mining and processing of rare earth minerals, and the administration wants to change that. 

The United States is not the only country that has decided to reduce its dependence on China; the EU and India are also investing in diversifying their critical mineral supply chain. 

Both the European Union and India have launched serious efforts to diversify their supply chains. In 2024, the EU passed the Critical Raw Materials Act, aiming to extract 10%, process 40%, and recycle 25% of the strategic minerals it consumes by 2030. It has already approved 47 key projects across 13 member states, backed by €22.5 billion in investments. 

Meanwhile, India has also stepped up its game. In January 2025, it launched the National Critical Mineral Mission with a budget of ₹34,300 crore (around $4 billion) to boost domestic exploration, mining, and processing. Beyond its borders, Indian state-owned firms are negotiating a $600 million deal to buy a 20% stake in Chilean miner SQM’s lithium projects in Australia.

According to the Department of Energy, since January 2021, the U.S. government has invested over $41 million in 26 critical mineral projects across the country. In April 2023, the government approved $16 million in funding to build America’s first critical minerals production facility in West Virginia and North Dakota, backed by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

However, building a mine is not easy or fast. It typically takes 7 to 15 years from discovery to production, sometimes even longer due to strict regulations, environmental clearances, and local opposition. Recent executive orders have tried to speed up this process by cutting red tape and encouraging mining projects on federal lands. 

Yes, the U.S. is making efforts to rebuild its critical mineral capacity, but it is still far from self-sufficient. A clear example is the Mountain Pass mine in California — the only rare earth mine in the country. The mine still sends most of its output to China for processing because the U.S. lacks large-scale refining facilities. Without investing in both mining and refining at home, true self-sufficiency is not possible. 

For years, the U.S. and its allies failed to invest in mining and refining, leaving the door open for China to dominate. Closing that gap now will take more than money. It will require strong, long-term partnerships with countries that hold these minerals. 

The U.S. is already in talks with Ukraine for a mineral supply deal. President Trump even floated the idea of buying Greenland — a region rich in untapped minerals. Some mineral-rich nations, like the Democratic Republic of Congo, are also looking to trade their resources in return for U.S. military support. 

It has also strengthened ties with Latin American nations such as Brazil, Chile, and Argentina, aiming to tap into their rich reserves of lithium, cobalt, and copper. These partnerships are part of a broader effort to build an Americas-centric and allied mineral supply chain for the future.

Europe is moving in the same direction. A senior EU official recently visited a strategic metals site in Greece, showing the bloc’s push to develop its own mineral resources and cut its dependency on China. The EU is also building ties with countries like Serbia and Rwanda to secure steady supplies of critical minerals.

China has already started using its dominance over critical minerals to tighten its grip on the global supply chain. Its recent decision to block exports of key minerals like gallium, germanium, and tungsten is just the beginning — a glimpse of the long game Beijing is preparing to play. These moves are part of a bigger strategy to weaponize its control over minerals that power the world’s tech, energy, and defense sectors.

For the U.S., the answer lies in building strong partnerships with mineral-rich nations while also strengthening its own domestic production and processing capacity. It’s not enough to invest in mining projects alone. Without refining and manufacturing facilities, the U.S. will always remain one step behind.

The trade war triggered by tariffs is already reshaping global supply chains. However, controlling the flow of critical minerals will shape something bigger — it will define who will lead the next phase of industrial and technological development. For the U.S., capturing and securing this supply chain is not just about trade; it’s about long-term economic strength, energy security, and geopolitical power. The mineral wars may not make headlines like oil wars once did, but the winner of this battle will shape the world’s energy, economy, and security for decades to come. 

This newsletter was written by Shyam Gowtham

Thank you for reading. We’ll see you at the next edition!