Coppering America 🟤

On March 5, 2025, while addressing the Joint Session of Congress in the House Chamber, President Donald Trump highlighted the number of executive orders he’s signed since taking charge. 

“Over the past six weeks, I have signed over 100 executive orders and taken more than 400 executive actions,” he declared. Among them is a particularly significant executive order. One that places a singular focus on a critical mineral: Copper. 

The executive order, titled “Addressing the Threat to National Security from Copper Imports,” aims to strengthen the domestic copper industry by assessing the national security risks of copper imports. It also directs an investigation into potential trade measures, including tariffs, to safeguard U.S. interests.

With this move, President Trump has made copper a central pillar of his administration’s domestic mineral policy.

But why copper?

In this issue of CrossDock, we’ll break it all down—why the Trump administration singled out copper and where the U.S. stands in terms of production and consumption. Plus, we’ll take a closer look at the global copper market, how the supply chain works, and the big role China plays in it all.

Let’s first begin with an overview of the copper mining industry. 

Tale of copper 

Copper has been part of human civilization for over 10,000 years, making it one of the oldest metals we’ve ever used. For centuries, societies relied on small-scale extractions, pulling copper from naturally occurring deposits. But it wasn’t until the 18th and 19th centuries that things really took off, when large-scale mining and commercial extraction began.

Then came the Industrial Revolution, and with it, an insatiable demand for copper. Railways were expanding, factories were booming, and the world was becoming more electrified. Suddenly, copper wasn’t just useful — it was essential. The hunt was on. Countries raced to uncover the richest copper deposits, digging deeper and wider than ever before, fueling a mining boom that shaped the modern copper industry. 

Nearly two centuries after the Industrial Revolution, copper remains as vital as ever, sustaining its global demand and value. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, worldwide copper production reached 23 million metric tons in 2024.

Chile leads the global supply, with 5.3 million metric tons extracted, accounting for nearly 24% of total production. It is followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, which produced 3.3 million metric tons, and Peru, which contributed 2.6 million metric tons.

Among other key producers, China mined 1.8 million metric tons in 2024, while the United States extracted 1.1 million metric tons. 

According to a S&P Global report titled The Future of Copper, the demand for copper is set to increase to 50 million metric tons by 2035 and 53 million metric tons by 2050.

But why is the demand for copper high? 

Let’s break it down for you. 

Demand and Demand 

Today, copper has become the backbone of modern electrification. Its conductive nature and durability have made it an integral part of almost every electrical system – from power grids to electronic circuits. 

Interestingly, as the world moves toward cleaner energy and a greener future, copper is at the heart of global decarbonization efforts, powering solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems. 

For example, the wind energy sector alone requires around 4,000 kg of copper per megawatt of installed capacity, while solar power systems need approximately 5.5 tons per megawatt. 

But the surge in copper demand isn’t just about clean energy. The AI revolution and the explosion of data centers are pushing demand to new levels. These facilities require vast amounts of copper for their construction, particularly for power networks, circuit boards, and cooling systems. 

A study of Microsoft's $500 million data center facility in Chicago found it used 2,177 tonnes of copper. According to an International Copper Association report in 2018, 37% of copper demand in data centers came from large and hyperscale DCs. By 2030, this is expected to rise to 67%.

Read More: Why are global superpowers competing for Greenland?

The China factor

As the world’s demand for copper keeps growing, mining is just the first step. Before copper can be used in EVs, data centers, and clean energy grids, it goes through two important processes—smelting and refining. These processes make copper purer, ensuring it conducts electricity efficiently. In short, they transform raw copper into the high-quality metal needed for modern technology.

When it comes to this stage of the supply chain, one country dominates the global landscape: China.

China isn’t the largest miner of copper, but it is by far the biggest processor. The country’s vast network of smelters and refineries handles more than half of the world’s copper, turning raw ore into refined metal ready for industrial use. 

Over the last two decades, it has tightened its grip on the global copper supply chain, turning itself into the undisputed processing hub.

This shift didn’t happen overnight—it was fueled by aggressive industrial expansion, government-backed investments, and a strategic push to dominate the global supply chain. 

As China’s economy surged, so did its demand for raw materials, and rather than relying on imports of refined copper, Beijing made a calculated move to control the processing side of the industry. This meant pouring billions into building state-of-the-art smelting and refining facilities. And it all paid off. 

In 2024, China accounted for 75% of global smelter capacity growth, giving it a stronghold over one of the most critical links in the supply chain. In the same year, China’s smelting capacity reached 14.26 million metric tons, which is projected to reach 16 million in 2025 and 17 million by 2027, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. 

But China isn’t just the world’s top processor of copper—it’s also its biggest consumer. The country’s rapid urbanization, infrastructure projects, and dominance in manufacturing have made it the largest single market for refined copper. 

From high-speed rail networks to skyscrapers, power grids, and electric vehicle production, nearly every major industrial sector in China relies on massive amounts of copper. In 2024, China consumed nearly 14 million metric tons of refined copper, more than half of the world’s total supply.

With both processing power and consumption strength, China holds the biggest influence on global copper markets. It can dictate pricing trends, influence trade flows, and shape the geopolitical landscape of copper supply chains. When China ramps up production, prices dip. When it cuts output, the market tightens. 

Let’s take the example of the 2021 energy crisis in China, when drought and heat waves wreaked havoc on the country’s hydropower stations. This reduced industrial activity, including copper production, tightened global supply, and drove up copper prices.

More recently, in 2024, China’s manufacturing slowdown led to a sharp drop in demand for copper, causing prices to fall by 17% in September.

Yes, China is a key player in copper processing, but how does it exert its influence on copper mining and production?

China dominates the global copper supply chain through a combination of strategic acquisitions, state-backed financing, and long-term planning to secure raw materials for its industrial and technological needs. 

According to the Power Playbook: Beijing’s Bid to Secure Overseas Transition Minerals report, Beijing has prioritized copper above all other transition minerals, allocating 83% of its official sector financial commitments to copper extraction and processing. 

This financial backing allows Chinese firms to acquire strategic mining assets worldwide, particularly in resource-rich developing countries like Peru and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). 

For example, in Peru, Chinese companies have invested heavily in the Toromocho and Las Bambas copper mines, securing billions of dollars in loans to finance their acquisition and expansion. Similarly, in the DRC, China has channeled substantial funding into large copper-cobalt mining sites, reinforcing its supply chain dominance.

This dominance over the global copper supply, from extraction to processing and distribution, has not gone unnoticed. 

Copper in the US

It's no secret that President Trump's recent executive order directly targets China's dominance in copper processing. 

President Trump has also directed the Secretary of Commerce to initiate an investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to determine whether imports of copper, scrap copper, and copper-related products pose a threat to U.S. national security. The order has directed the Secretary of Commerce to submit a report to him within 270 days. 

Chinese influence is only one side of the equation; the other is the state of domestic copper production.

The White House fact sheet underscored America’s growing dependence on copper imports, stating, “America’s reliance on copper imports has surged from virtually 0% in 1991 to 45% of consumption in 2024, heightening risks to supply chain security.”

Lutnick reinforced the urgency of domestic production, emphasizing that “U.S. industries and national defense depend on copper, and it should be made in America—no exemptions, no exceptions.” He added, “It’s time for copper to come home.”

But it is easier said than done. 

In 2024, the U.S. imported around 800,000 metric tons of refined copper, with Chile, Canada, and Mexico supplying the bulk of it. At the same time, the domestic copper production in the United States is shrinking. In 2024, the U.S. produced only 850,000 metric tons. 

Interestingly, according to the National Mining Association, the United States has over 48 trillion tons of copper reserves, primarily in Arizona, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah.

So, why is the United States not domestically mining copper?

Sadly, there is no one straight answer to this. Multiple factors have contributed to the dwindling copper production in the United States. 

The Resolution Copper Mine in Arizona, for instance, has been waiting in regulatory limbo for over two decades. These bureaucratic roadblocks make it easier for companies to source copper from overseas rather than invest in domestic production.

Next are the legal and environmental battles. The Pebble Project in Alaska, which could have been one of the largest copper mines in the world, was blocked due to concerns over its impact on local fisheries. 

Similarly, the Twin Metals project lost its leases in Minnesota over fears of polluting the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness. 

Even when mines are operational, they face another issue — declining ore grades. As older mines extract lower-grade material, companies must process more rock to produce the same amount of copper, driving up costs.

The Bingham Canyon Mine in Utah and the Eagle Mine in Michigan are prime examples of mines where reduced mill throughput and lower-grade ores have reduced output. 

Finally, labor shortages have made it harder to keep mines running at full capacity. Employment in copper mining has remained stagnant, with some operations, like the Mission Mine in Arizona, reporting production drops due to staffing challenges and technical setbacks.

This brings us to the most important question: Can tariffs solve America’s copper problem?

Copper tariffs 

There are mixed answers to this question. Experts are divided on whether tariffs can effectively revive U.S. production or if they will create more economic strain. 

Some argue that imposing tariffs on imported copper would make foreign supply more expensive, incentivizing domestic mining and refining. They believe this could strengthen America’s supply chain security, create jobs, and reduce dependence on foreign sources, particularly China, which dominates global copper processing.

On the other hand, critics warn that tariffs would significantly increase costs for industries dependent on imported copper, such as construction, electric vehicles, and renewable energy. Furthermore, they also estimate that it will take decades for the U.S. to reach the capacity of copper it imports. 

This fear is not misplaced. 

When President Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum in his first term, the steel industry experienced a slight boost. Some domestic manufacturers expanded operations and hired more workers to meet rising demand due to reduced foreign competition.

Steel imports declined by 24%, signaling a shift toward domestic production. However, a U.S. Trade Commission report on Section 232 later found that the overall impact was limited—while steel prices in the U.S. rose by 2.4%, domestic production increased by only 1.9%, highlighting the tariffs' modest effect on revitalizing the industry.

Final thoughts 

Yes, ramping up U.S. copper production is essential, not just to meet industrial demand but also to protect supply chains from foreign influence, particularly when the defense sector heavily relies on the metal. However, tariffs alone are not the solution.

Instead, a more comprehensive approach is needed—one that includes cutting bureaucratic red tape, fast-tracking the approval process for new mining projects, and ensuring that environmental protections and stakeholder interests remain intact.

Beyond just production, the push for domestic copper is a geopolitical necessity. 

Copper is no longer just a commodity; it’s a strategic asset tied to national security. With China controlling the majority of global copper processing and exerting influence over key mining regions, the U.S. could end up in the mercy of a foreign power for a resource vital to its military, energy, and technological infrastructures. 

In an age where critical minerals are central to global power struggles, the U.S. can’t afford to remain dependent on foreign copper. Securing domestic production isn’t just about economic growth—it’s about national security. 

This newsletter was written by Shyam Gowtham

Thank you for reading. We’ll see you at the next edition!