Supreme Court Doubts US Tariffs 🏛️

The U.S. Supreme Court signaled skepticism over President Donald Trump’s sweeping use of global tariffs, as several justices suggested he may have exceeded his legal authority. During a nearly three-hour hearing, the Court — including members of its conservative majority — questioned Trump’s reliance on emergency powers to impose tariffs that generate tens of billions of dollars a month.

👑 Presidential Power: The Trump administration argued that its tariffs are legal under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — a law that grants the president broad authority to respond to national security, foreign policy, and economic emergencies.

💰 Refund Time: A ruling against Trump tariffs could trigger more than $100 billion in tariff refunds, lift a major financial burden from U.S. importers, and strip the president of one of his most powerful tools for pressuring trade partners.

The U.S. government is moving ahead with President Donald Trump’s pledge to pause tariffs targeting China’s shipbuilding and port equipment industries, as part of an interim trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The U.S. Trade Representative has proposed a one-year suspension of tariffs on Chinese-made ship-to-shore cranes, intermodal chassis, and related parts, which were set to face 100% duties starting Nov. 9. The pause would also halt newly introduced fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated merchant vessels docking at U.S. ports.

🤝 Favour Returned: In return, China has agreed to suspend its own retaliatory measures, including fees imposed on U.S.-owned ships calling at Chinese ports and sanctions on foreign shipping entities connected to U.S. maritime investments.

📢 Public Opinion: The public will have until 5 p.m. on Friday (New York time) to submit comments on the proposal, and the tariff freeze is expected to begin on November 10.

The background: These tariffs were introduced after a broader U.S. investigation under Section 301, which began during the Biden administration to examine China’s unfair advantages in shipbuilding, logistics, and maritime equipment. Earlier this year, the U.S. imposed steep tariffs — some as high as 150% — to counter China’s dominance in making ships and port cranes.

China’s exports fell 1.1% year-on-year in October, marking their first decline since March 2024, as demand softened and early shipping ahead of the U.S.-China talks.

Imports rose only 1%, missing expectations, reflecting weak domestic demand due to a sluggish housing market and labor pressures. Exports to the U.S. dropped sharply by 25% — the seventh straight month of double-digit declines — while imports from the U.S. fell nearly 23%.

Overall, Chinese exports for the first 10 months of 2025 remained up 5.3%, driven by stronger shipments to ASEAN, the EU, and Africa. Exports to ASEAN rose 14.3%, to the EU by 7.5% and to Africa by 26.1%, showing a shift toward alternative markets. Despite weaker U.S. demand, China reported a trade surplus of nearly $965 billion so far this year, up 23% from 2024.

US manufacturing activity contracted for the eighth straight month in October, signaling persistent stress across the industrial economy. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported its Manufacturing Index at 48.7, down from 49.1 in September and firmly below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.

Production weakened sharply, with the production sub-index declining to 49.5 from 50.2, moving back into contraction territory. New Orders stayed subdued at 46.8, suggesting that demand continues to falter both domestically and internationally. Export orders also remained weak, reflecting softer global trade momentum.

Manufacturers responded by reducing hiring and hours. The employment index slipped to 47.9, from 48.5, indicating job losses or hiring freezes across factories. The backlog of orders also dropped to 45.3, one of its lowest readings this year, showing limited future workload for producers.

President Donald Trump announced a trade and investment deal with Uzbekistan, outlining plans for the Central Asian nation to invest nearly $35 billion in the US over the next three years, and more than $100 billion over the next decade. The agreement spans multiple sectors, including critical minerals, aviation, automotive parts, infrastructure, agriculture, energy and chemicals, and information technology.

The announcement came after a White House meeting with leaders from five Central Asian countries — Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. The talks focused heavily on rare earths and critical minerals.

The move aligns with the Trump administration’s broader strategy to deepen economic and geopolitical ties with Central Asia — a region increasingly courted by global powers including China and Russia.

China’s manufacturing activity contracted more sharply than expected in October, with the official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 49.0, its lowest level in six months, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The reading missed economists’ forecasts of 49.6 in a Reuters poll and marked a decline from 49.8 in September, extending the sector’s contraction streak that began in April, when the United States renewed its tariff campaign.

The report showed continued weakness across key sub-indices, including production, new orders, raw material inventories, and employment, all of which remained below the 50-point threshold separating growth from contraction.

China has made its first purchases of U.S. wheat in a year, buying around 120,000 metric tons for December delivery following last week’s meeting between President Trump and President Xi. Beijing also accepted a U.S. shipment of sorghum, signaling a modest reopening of agricultural trade channels.

These moves follow China's suspension of retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. goods, although soybeans—America’s top farm export to China—still face a 13% tariff, making U.S. supplies less competitive than the cheaper Brazilian cargoes. Despite a White House pledge that China would buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by year-end, Beijing has not confirmed this commitment, and major soybean purchases are yet to materialize.

Analysts say the wheat purchase is largely a political gesture, given that U.S. wheat is not the cheapest on the market.

U.S. Steel unveiled a $14 billion investment plan to strengthen its U.S. operations, backed by parent company Nippon Steel. The company said $11 billion will be spent by 2028 on upgrades to manufacturing facilities, research and development, and product innovation. The initiative aims to protect and create over 100,000 jobs across the nation.

Both companies plan to deliver $2.5 billion in annual earnings and synergy benefits by 2030, driven by operational efficiencies and cost reductions. Since its acquisition by Nippon Steel in June, U.S. Steel has already approved $300 million in facility projects, including a slag recycling plant in Pennsylvania and upgrades at its Gary, Indiana, hot strip mill.

Upcoming investments include a direct-reduced iron (DRI) plant, furnace upgrades, and enhancements to electric arc furnace technology across multiple sites.

A.P. Moller-Maersk has raised the lower end of its full-year earnings forecast as global container trade shows stronger-than-expected growth, driven largely by a surge in Chinese exports. The Danish shipping giant now expects its underlying EBITDA to be between $9 billion and $9.5 billion for 2025, up from a previous range of $8 billion to $9.5 billion.

Maersk said it now anticipates the global container market to expand around 4% this year, compared with its earlier projection of 2%–4%. The company cited robust export activity from China and broader Far East Asia as the key driver of volume growth.

Import demand remained firm in Europe, Africa, Latin America, and West Central Asia, helping offset regional slowdowns. However, Maersk noted that shipments into North America declined, particularly on routes from China to the U.S.

Demand for U.S. industrial real estate surged in the third quarter, as companies moved ahead with logistics and distribution expansion despite ongoing tariff-related uncertainty. According to Colliers, net absorption reached 60 million square feet, nearly 20 million more than the same period last year, and the highest level since early 2023.

Markets such as Phoenix and Indianapolis led the uptick, driven by major big-box warehouse activity, build-to-suit projects, and large user transactions. Even so, year-to-date absorption remains below 2024 levels, signaling a still-recovering market.

Vacancy rates stood at 7.4% in Q3, up 72 basis points year-over-year, but rising demand and a shrinking construction pipeline could help stabilize vacancy in the months ahead. Industrial space under construction fell to 270 million square feet, the lowest since 2018.

A prolonged slowdown in U.S. cardboard box sales is raising alarms that this year’s holiday shopping season may be softer than expected. According to the Fibre Box Association, corrugated box shipments fell to their lowest third-quarter level since 2015, continuing the muted pace seen earlier this year.

Cardboard boxes are a key indicator of retail and e-commerce activity since they are widely used for packaging consumer goods. The decline suggests retailers are ordering fewer products ahead of the holiday rush, reflecting concerns about spending and excess inventory.

Packaging companies have warned in recent weeks that economic uncertainty and cautious consumer behavior are weighing on demand. Many retailers remain hesitant to overstock, having grappled with inventory gluts and shifting buying trends in previous seasons.

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) is moving ahead with an $8.5 billion, 10-year modernization plan aimed at expanding capacity and improving resilience, according to Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vásquez Morales. The plan includes construction of two new transshipment port terminals, a 47-mile gas pipeline linking the Pacific and Atlantic, and a new freshwater reservoir to secure long-term operations.

The terminals — Corozal on the Pacific side and Telfers on the Atlantic — are expected to add 5.5 million TEUs of container-handling capacity. The ACP has launched a consultation process to find private partners, with pre-qualification set for 2026 and final concession awards in 2027. Major global terminal operators such as DP World, PSA International, MSC, Maersk, and Cosco have shown interest.

To address climate risks and drought-related transit restrictions like those seen in 2023, the ACP is investing $1.6 billion in the Indio Rio reservoir, due for completion in 2031, to secure freshwater for 50% of Panama's population and canal operations