Scrambling for Eggs 🥚

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. But what if there are no eggs left to be put in a basket? That is exactly what’s unfolding in the United States. 

Not too long ago, picking up a carton of eggs was just another effortless part of a grocery run — grab, toss in the cart, and move on. Now? You’re lucky if you find any at all. Shelves sit empty, egg prices keep climbing, and some stores won’t even let you buy more than a few at a time.

Today, the staple American breakfast protein, once cheap and abundant, has become elusive. What’s causing this scramble for eggs? Why does a commodity that was affordable now seem like a luxury? 

Let’s dive in to find the answers.

Deja Vu

If the current egg shortage and price surge feel like déjà vu, you're not imagining it. In 2023, the U.S. experienced a record-breaking spike in egg prices.

While the world and the United States were busy dealing with COVID-19, another virus — H5N1, or bird flu — quietly made its way into the country.

The H5N1 avian influenza virus resurfaced in the United States in early 2022 (in 2016, it lasted for just one season), first detected in wild birds in North and South Carolina. It didn’t stay in the wild for long. 

The virus spread rapidly, reaching commercial poultry farms, where it infected flocks of chickens and turkeys, forcing widespread culling to prevent further outbreaks. For egg-laying hens, H5N1 is particularly ruthless — attacking the respiratory and nervous systems with lethal efficiency. Unfortunately, the only viable containment strategy is mass culling. A single outbreak can wipe out entire farm operations overnight, sending shockwaves through the poultry and egg supply chain.

By 2023, those shockwaves had translated into record-high egg prices. According to the USDA, more than 58 million birds were lost to the outbreak, straining the egg supply chain and causing prices to rise. In January 2023, the average price for eggs reached $4.82 per dozen, more than double the price from a year earlier. 

The ongoing crisis feels eerily similar. In just the last three months, the outbreak has intensified, claiming more than 30 million chickens — roughly 10 percent of the nation’s egg-laying population.  

In November and December alone, 17.2 million egg-laying hens died as a result of the virus. In total, 136 million birds have either died or been culled since the virus first hit U.S. soil, states the USDA. The industry is once again scrambling to recover. That is because rebuilding flocks will take time. The national egg-laying population typically sits at around 318 million, and it could be months before the US reaches those numbers.

Extreme weather has also contributed to the spread of avian flu. Storms and shifting climate conditions have disrupted the natural migration patterns of wild birds, the primary carriers of the virus. These birds have been forced to take unexpected routes, increasing the chances of the virus reaching new areas and infecting more poultry farms.

“Hurricanes in the southeastern United States last year actually displaced wild birds, causing them to retrace their flight paths over the same regions they had already traveled through,”  she added in the interview with CNN. 

All these shortages have resulted in the rise of egg prices across the United States.

Shell shocked 

According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the average price for a dozen large Grade A eggs reached $4.15 in December 2024; this is a staggering 37% increase over the past year. But farm-level egg prices saw an even more dramatic rise — 134.5% higher than in December 2023. 

Interestingly,  where you live and buy your eggs also play a crucial role in the prices. 

For example, the wholesale prices in the Midwest, a crucial region for egg production, skyrocketed to a record $6.95 per dozen in January 2025 — higher than the national average. 

So, what’s causing the difference, and why is the Midwest so important in US egg production?

Let’s break it down. The Midwest plays an essential role in the US egg industry, serving as a key production hub for the nation. States like Iowa, Ohio, and Indiana house the majority of the poultry farms that supply much of the country's eggs, making the region a crucial indicator of broader pricing trends. 

Case in point: With an egg production of 13.42 billion, Iowa is the largest egg-producing state in America, according to USDA. In second and third place are​​ Ohio and Indiana, with 11.77 billion and 10.64 billion eggs, respectively. 

When wholesale prices surge in the Midwest, they send ripples throughout the national market. A significant portion of the eggs produced here are shipped to retailers across the country, and any fluctuations in pricing — whether due to supply constraints, transportation costs, or broader economic pressures — can be felt from coast to coast.

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview Report 2025, retailers were purchasing large white eggs at an average wholesale price of $6.10 per dozen, while some stores were advertising them for sale at an average of just $2.24 per dozen.

This brings us to the next important question: Why are retail prices lower than wholesale prices? 

The answer lies in retail pricing strategies. Wholesale markets react quickly to changes in supply and demand, with prices fluctuating based on immediate conditions. On the other hand, retailers adjust prices more gradually and often have mechanisms in place to absorb short-term price volatility.

Additionally, since eggs are a high-demand staple, keeping their prices relatively low helps draw customers into stores, where they are likely to purchase other products with higher profit margins. This is why there is a considerable difference in wholesale and retail prices for eggs. 

Remember, the price is just one part of the problem troubling American families. The other part is the shortage has forced some supermarkets to impose a cap on the number of eggs that consumers buy. 

Supermarkets across the United States are imposing limits on egg purchases as supply shortages persist. 

In Massachusetts, Market Basket has placed a similar two-carton cap on purchases. It is the same story in the Bay Area, where Safeway has also implemented restrictions in an effort to ration supply.

These restrictions directly impact consumers, especially families who typically rely on eggs for various meals and dietary needs. 

Egging problems  

Yes, the avian flu outbreak is the biggest contributor to the egg shortages in the United States, but it’s not the only reason prices have remained high. Another significant reason is policy change. Let’s explain that.

In the past few years, many states have increased their push to make poultry farming cage-free. This shift is reshaping the egg industry, adding costs that make eggs more expensive even in the absence of a supply crisis.

Cage-free egg production differs significantly from traditional caged systems. In conventional setups, birds are kept in small enclosures that limit movement, allowing farms to house more birds in a smaller space and produce eggs at lower costs. 

In contrast, cage-free systems require birds to have more room to roam inside barns, with access to perches and nesting areas. While this setup improves animal welfare, it also requires more space, higher feed costs, and additional labor, all of which drive up production expenses.

California and Massachusetts were among the first states to mandate cage-free eggs. In California, this came into effect in 2022 after Proposition 12 –​​ a law that prohibits the sale of eggs from hens that are confined in cages. The law also applies to other farm animals, including pigs and calves– was passed. 

Other states in the Pacific Northwest, including Washington and Oregon, have also enacted cage-free requirements, adding to the pressure on egg producers. More recently, Colorado and Michigan have joined the list, with their cage-free laws taking effect in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

This transition has made eggs more expensive, especially in states where cage-free laws are enforced. 

For instance, on the West Coast, where these mandates are widespread, large eggs cost anywhere between $8 to $10 per dozen, significantly higher than the national average. The added costs of transitioning to cage-free production mean prices in these regions may remain elevated even as supply recovers. As more states move toward similar regulations, the long-term cost of eggs is likely to stay higher than it was before these policies were introduced.

And then there’s inflation. According to the USDA, the average price of eggs has remained above $3 since June 2024 and has remained above $2 since the beginning of 2022. 

Finally, the demand factor.

Eggs are a cheap and easy source of protein, and Americans have been increasingly adding eggs to their diets for the past two decades. According to USDA AMS data, per capita egg consumption has increased since the 2000s. It has grown from 251 eggs in 2000 to 281.3 eggs in 2023 and a projected 284.4 eggs in 2024. This clearly shows the rising demand for eggs.

When will egg prices come down?

For now, it doesn’t look like egg prices will be dropping anytime soon. In fact, they’re expected to rise by about 20% in 2025, according to a USDA outlook report — a much bigger jump than the 2.2% increase projected for overall food prices.

Also, rebuilding flocks takes time—at least six months to a year—before enough chickens are producing eggs to meet demand again. Until then, supply will remain tight, keeping prices high.

And to add to the predicaments, there’s no effective vaccine for the current strain of bird flu. While the U.S. government has developed vaccines for some strains of H5N1, they aren’t widely used in poultry because of trade concerns and the constant need for updates as the virus mutates. 

The U.S. has avoided mass vaccination, as many countries might refuse to import vaccinated poultry over concerns that it could mask infections.

So why not just import eggs from other countries to make up for the gap? 

Well, it’s not that simple.

Strict regulations

Unlike fruits, vegetables, or even beef, eggs aren’t something the U.S. imports in large quantities. There are strict food safety regulations, trade barriers, and logistical challenges that make large-scale egg imports pretty difficult. The USDA and FDA have tough biosecurity rules in place to prevent foreign diseases — especially bird flu — from entering the country through imported eggs.

And here’s the thing: the U.S. already produces enough eggs to meet its own demand, so there’s never been a big need to rely on imports. In fact, the country actually exports far more eggs than it imports. To put it in numbers: in October 2024, the U.S. exported $52.9 million worth of eggs while importing only $6.84 million. That’s a trade surplus of $46.1 million.

Although importing eggs from other countries might seem like an easy fix, the system is not designed that way. 

Final thoughts 

The egg industry is calling for help. United Egg Producers recently urged Congress and the Trump administration to put together a national strategy to fight bird flu. They want more funding for faster testing and stronger investments in vaccine development. But even if those efforts move forward quickly, they won’t bring prices down overnight.

The egg shortage isn’t just about empty grocery shelves—it has wider economic ripple effects that impact businesses and industries that rely on eggs. Restaurants, bakeries, and food manufacturers rely heavily on eggs, and when the supply tightens, these businesses feel the squeeze just as much as households do.

When prices spike, or shortages occur, companies are forced to raise prices, cut production, or find alternatives. Some companies have already turned to plant-based egg substitutes as a cheaper, more stable option when real eggs become too expensive or hard to source.

So, what’s the long-term solution? 

Experts believe the answers lie in better biosecurity, faster bird flu testing, and stronger investments in vaccine development to prevent outbreaks from getting out of control in the first place.

Regardless of the approach, one thing is clear — this isn’t just a short-term problem. Without better monitoring systems, government intervention, and industry-wide solutions, egg shortages could become a recurring issue rather than a rare crisis.

This newsletter was written by Shyam Gowtham

Thank you for reading. We’ll see you at the next edition!