Happy Friday!

China is beginning to loosen its grip on rare earth exports. Shipments of rare-earth products rose 13% month over month in November to 6,958 tons, the third-highest monthly total on record.

This is welcome news for industries that rely heavily on critical minerals, particularly after a year in which China has repeatedly tightened and relaxed its rare earth export controls.

Let’s dive into today’s edition.

Plus: Check out supply chain news from around the world 🌎. Play our weekly quiz and maintain your win streak 🏆

China has purchased at least 7 million tons of U.S. soybeans, reaching the halfway point of a 12-million-ton commitment agreed with the U.S. administration, according to reports. Most of the recent buying has been driven by Sinograin, which manages China’s strategic reserves, alongside purchases by state trader COFCO.

Current Affairs: The buying surge follows weeks of uncertainty after the late-October Trump–Xi Jinping meeting, with neither side formally publishing the deal’s details or timeline. U.S. officials have offered mixed signals on deadlines, while a government shutdown has delayed USDA export data, keeping parts of China’s purchases unofficial.

Despite the progress, soybean prices remain under pressure as Brazil’s cheaper supplies and an expected record harvest loom. Chicago soybean futures are down about 9% from November highs, underscoring market skepticism over timing and whether U.S. beans can compete once South American exports ramp up early next year.

Ford is sharply pulling back from electric vehicles, taking a $19.5 billion write-down as weakening demand and Trump-era policy changes reshape the U.S. auto market. The automaker is cancelling multiple EV programs and pivoting toward hybrids and gas-powered models

By the numbers: Ford’s pullback comes with a $19.5 billion writedown, including $8.5 billion tied to cancelled EV models, $6 billion from dissolving its battery joint venture with SK On, and $5 billion in program-related costs. The move follows a 40% drop in U.S. EV sales in November, while Ford sold 25,583 F-150 Lightnings year-to-date, down 10% year over year.

Where is Ford headed? Ford will lean more heavily into gas and hybrid vehicles, while narrowing its EV lineup to smaller, lower-cost models. The company now expects 50% of its global sales mix by 2030 to come from hybrids, extended-range EVs, and pure EVs — up from 17% today.

The Pentagon is backing a $7.4 billion critical minerals smelter in Tennessee in partnership with Korea Zinc, marking one of the most significant U.S. government investments in domestic metals processing in decades. The facility will be built in Clarksville, Tennessee, with construction expected to begin in 2027 and operations to start by the end of 2029.

What’s the deal: Under the agreement, a U.S.-controlled joint venture will own about 40% of the smelter project, while also acquiring newly issued shares equivalent to roughly 10% of Korea Zinc’s equity, giving Washington both project-level control and a strategic foothold in the company.

Why it matters: The facility could produce up to 540,000 tons of critical minerals annually, supplying defense systems, semiconductors, AI hardware, data centers, EVs, and advanced manufacturing, while reducing U.S. reliance on China-dominated supply chains.

Shareholder Opposition: The deal is being opposed by major shareholders who have filed for an injunction at the Seoul Central District Court to block the share sale. They argue the issuance violates shareholder rights and governance standards.

Cobalt miners in the Democratic Republic of Congo will be allowed to retain and ship their allotted 2025 export quotas once procedural delays are resolved, according to the Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances’ Markets.

What’s happening? The decision comes after implementation setbacks in Congo’s new quota system, which temporarily blocked shipments and contributed to a sharp rise in cobalt prices, with cobalt hydroxide prices quadrupling in recent months.

Next Steps: Under the interim arrangement, miners can carry forward their permitted volumes into 2026, although the annual quotas for 2026 and 2027 remain set at levels below the country’s 2024 output. Regulators are currently testing the updated export procedures with a pilot group of operators, with the aim of restarting shipments once the system is finalized.

U.S. tariff revenue fell month over month for the first time since President Donald Trump rolled out sweeping global import duties earlier this year, signaling early limits to how much money the tariff regime can reliably generate. Customs receipts totaled $30.75 billion in November, down from $31.35 billion in October, after months of steady gains.

The Rollback: The decline follows the administration’s mid-November rollback of several food-related tariffs, including duties on coffee, bananas, and beef, amid mounting cost-of-living pressures.

Big Picture: The revenue outlook is further clouded by a pending Supreme Court challenge to tariffs imposed under emergency powers. If struck down, tens of billions of dollars already collected could be refunded to importers, potentially wiping out a significant share of this year’s tariff windfall.

Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer, is considering a 34% cut in nickel output in 2026, reducing production to 250 million tonnes, according to industry group APNI. The move is aimed at stabilizing prices after a prolonged downturn driven by global oversupply and falling ore grades.

Key Details: Nickel prices are down about 7% year over year to roughly $14,400 per tonne, far below recent peaks. While Jakarta hopes tighter supply will push prices back toward the $18,000–$20,000 range, analysts warn the market may remain oversupplied, with producers such as Nornickel forecasting a 275,000-tonne surplus next year.

Zoom Out: Indonesia produced 2.2 million tonnes of nickel in 2024, according to the United States Geological Survey, cementing its central role in the global battery metals supply chain. Any production cut by Indonesia would have significant implications for EV batteries, stainless steel markets, and downstream pricing worldwide.

China will introduce export controls on hundreds of steel products starting Jan. 1, adding another layer of oversight to global steel trade flows. Under the new system, exporters will need government approval to ship around 300 steel products, including stainless steel, marking a shift from China’s largely unrestricted steel exports.

Steel Deal: The move comes amid a surge in China’s steel exports. Shipments rose 6.7% year-on-year to 108 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025 and are on track for a record year, even as domestic demand weakens due to the prolonged property slump.

Why Now? Beijing has not given an official reason for the controls, but they arrive amid intensifying trade tensions with countries pushing back against Chinese oversupply.

The U.S. House of Representatives approved a bipartisan bill that would tighten oversight of Chinese shipping companies and expand the Federal Maritime Commission’s authority to crack down on unfair practices in global ocean trade.

What Happened: Lawmakers passed legislation reauthorizing the FMC by voice vote, sending the bill to the Senate. The measure strengthens oversight of ocean carriers and shipping exchanges accused of distorting competition, with a particular focus on China-linked firms.

What’s in the bill:

What’s next: The legislation now moves to the Senate, where lawmakers will decide whether to advance one of Washington’s most direct regulatory responses yet to China’s maritime influence.

The Port of Los Angeles expects container volumes to ease in 2026 after importers pulled shipments forward this year to get ahead of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.

The port said it is on track to handle more than 10 million containers in 2025 for the second consecutive year, but noted that this performance is artificially inflated by pre-tariff stockpiling rather than sustained trade growth.

Falling Volumes: Port data show momentum already fading. November volumes fell 12% year over year, driven by an 11% drop in imports as warehouses remain well stocked and buyers scale back new orders. Exports also continue to weaken, falling 8% in November and putting the port on track for its first annual export decline since 2021—largely due to retaliatory tariffs and shifting trade flows affecting U.S. agriculture and manufacturing.

South Korea–based LS Cable & System plans to invest an additional $689 million to expand its manufacturing footprint in Virginia, building a large industrial campus in Chesapeake that will be operated through three subsidiaries and create about 430 jobs. The project, announced by Gov. Glenn Youngkin, is expected to break ground in 2026.

The new complex is designed to establish a domestic supply chain for magnetic copper wire and rare earth magnets. Planned operations include copper rod production using recycled and smelted material, magnet wire manufacturing for automotive and industrial applications, and rare-earth magnet production for electric motors and U.S. defense systems, including programs tied to Lockheed Martin and Raytheon.

The announcement builds on LS Cable’s earlier $680 million commitment to construct a high-voltage subsea cable manufacturing and port facility in Chesapeake, which broke ground earlier this year.