100 Days of Trump and Supply Chains

99.

That’s the number of executive orders Franklin D. Roosevelt signed during his first 100 days as president of the United States. The orders and laws passed under his New Deal didn’t just lift America out of the Great Depression; they reshaped the economy and laid the foundation for the modern United States.

Since then, the first 100 days have become a litmus test — a way to measure a new president’s impact in the Oval Office. 

For the next eighty years, no president came close to matching FDR’s record of executive orders.

Until 2025.

When President Donald Trump completed his first 100 days back in office on April 29, he had signed nearly 141 executive orders — 42 more than FDR, and almost 100 more than his predecessor, Joe Biden, who signed 42, setting a new all-time record.

Without a doubt, President Trump’s executive actions have impacted almost every sector and every walk of American life, including the supply chain, which has experienced some of the most immediate and sweeping changes.

In this issue of CrossDock, we dive into the key presidential actions taken by President Trump in his first 100 days and the chain reactions they’ve triggered across domestic and global supply chains, many of which are still unfolding.

Tariff Thy Neighbour 

Action: On just his tenth day back in office, President Trump reignited trade tensions by signing an executive order on February 1, 2025, imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Citing a national emergency, he justified the move by pointing to the continued flow of fentanyl and illegal immigration across both borders. 

“Tariffs are a powerful, proven source of leverage for protecting the national interest.  President Trump is using the tools at hand and taking decisive action that puts Americans’ safety and our national security first,” read the executive order, which made it clear how the administration planned to use trade actions in the months ahead.

Reaction: Mexico and Canada are not just friendly neighbors but the United States’ top trading partners. In 2024, U.S. goods trade totaled $762.1 billion with Canada and $839.9 billion with Mexico, according to data from the U.S. Trade Representative. 

In fact, what’s more important here is that the U.S. imports more goods from them than it exports. 

Take Mexico, for example — in 2024, it shipped nearly $500 billion worth of goods to the U.S., with vehicles, car parts, and machinery topping the list. A 25% tariff on these categories didn’t just stand to raise prices; it could potentially shatter the delicate logistics that kept North America’s just-in-time supply chains moving.

It wasn’t just hardware and heavy industry that took a hit. Agriculture was squarely in the line of fire. The U.S. imports most of its fresh produce from Mexico, especially during winter when domestic farms fall short. That includes avocados, tomatoes, bell peppers, cucumbers, and berries. 

A 25% tariff on these goods meant immediate pressure on retailers and distributors. Industry experts warned that the added cost would inevitably be passed down to consumers.

Importers echoed the same concern. Some predicted a 15–30% increase in prices for key items within weeks, particularly for low-margin grocers and regional chains that lack the negotiating power of big-box retailers.

Canada wasn’t spared either.

In response to Trump’s tariffs, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau immediately hit back with retaliatory tariffs of 25% on CAD$155 billion worth of U.S. goods. 

But the commodity that was at the center of this tariff war was energy.

Both countries’ energy sectors have been closely tied for several decades. And Canada is the largest foreign oil supplier to the United States. In fact, crude oil and petroleum products make up about 30% of Canada’s exports to the U.S.

A 25% tariff on these shipments raised concerns right away, especially among fuel suppliers in the Midwest and New England, where Canadian oil is a significant part of the supply chain.

The next target was electricity. The U.S. imports over 11,300 GWh of electricity from Canada yearly — enough to power about one million homes, mainly in the Northeast and Midwest. 

In March, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a 25% surcharge on electricity sent to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota, calling it direct retaliation for Trump’s tariffs. The surcharge, which would have affected 1.5 million U.S. homes and businesses and added roughly $400,000 in daily costs, was ultimately suspended after the U.S. pulled back on some of its tariff threats.

After weeks of heated back-and-forth and multiple pauses, the turning point came on March 6, when Trump announced an indefinite delay on tariffs for goods compliant with the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA)—covering 50% of imports from Mexico and 38% from Canada. Though the exemption was initially set to expire on April 2, it was extended without a new deadline.

The tariffs for most products have been lowered, but the damage has already been caused. 

Mexico’s economy is expected to barely grow this year after coming dangerously close to a recession last quarter, according to a Reuters poll. Economists say uncertainty around President Trump’s aggressive tariffs and trade moves is scaring off investment and slowing down consumer spending in the country. Companies that had planned to move south of the border

It’s not just the economy showing strain; the friendship between the U.S. and Canada is cracking, too. 

In Canada, more and more shoppers are actively avoiding American products, with a surge in support for “Made in Canada” labels. Goldman Sachs estimates that foreign boycotts, including Canada's, could reduce U.S. GDP by up to $83 billion in 2025.

If allies weren’t spared in the trade war, what fate awaited America’s geopolitical rival?

China Walls Go Up

Action: U.S. tariffs on China almost feel like déjà vu. That is because during his first term, President Trump imposed tariffs on $360 billion worth of Chinese goods. Now, in his second term, China is once again in the crosshairs. Currently, the U.S. imposes tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese imports in addition to existing duties—the steepest ever. 

Reaction: In retaliation, China responded with its own tariffs, reaching up to 125% on U.S. goods.

So what does this mean for supply chains? 

In 2024, the U.S. imported around $438.9 billion in goods from China, according to the U.S. Trade Representative data. The top imports included electrical machinery, nuclear reactor components, and mechanical appliances. Other major categories ranged from toys and sports equipment to plastics, furniture, vehicles, steel, and apparel. 

The picture is far from perfect for retailers, who are among the hardest hit. Take Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, for example. While the retail giant has reduced its reliance on China, sourcing around 60% of its merchandise from there today (down from 80% in 2018), China remains a critical supplier, especially for discretionary items like clothing, electronics, and home goods. 

Despite efforts to diversify, Walmart is still heavily exposed. And with steep tariffs now in place, industry reports suggest that higher price tags for consumers are just around the corner.

And it’s not just about prices — it’s about availability.

Some experts warn of COVID-era-style product shortages, and early indicators suggest they may be right. One of the clearest red flags? Container activity.

At the Port of Los Angeles, one of the country’s largest entry points for Chinese goods, Executive Director Gene Seroka told port officials that he expects a 35% drop in import volumes within weeks, noting that “shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have essentially ceased.”

Data from Vizion, a supply chain visibility platform cited by the Financial Times, backs this up. By mid-April 2025, container bookings from China to the U.S. were down 45% year-over-year — a collapse not seen since the height of the pandemic.

So, what’s the impact of tariffs on China? Let’s break it down for you. 

China is starting to feel real economic pain from the escalating tariff war.

Overall manufacturing activity in China also slumped to its weakest reading in over a year, showing that Trump’s tariffs are hitting the core of China’s export-driven economy.

Interestingly, the tariffs are already shifting global trade routes. Companies are beginning to pivot away from China toward lower-tariff markets like Vietnam, Thailand, and India, where U.S. duties currently sit at just 10%.

This shift is clearly visible in logistics. Hapag-Lloyd AG, the world’s fifth-largest container carrier, reported last week that about 30% of bookings from China to the U.S. have been canceled. At the same time, shipments from Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia are on the rise — a clear sign that exporters are rerouting supply chains to avoid steep tariffs.

It wasn’t just big shipping containers caught in the tariff crossfire — small packages took a hit too.

End of Deminimis rule

Action: As of May 2, 2025, the Trump administration will officially end de minimis treatment for shipments from China. That means all Chinese imports — regardless of value — will now face full customs duties, taxes, and data reporting requirements. Previously, goods under $800 in value could enter duty-free.

Reaction: Before we delve into the reaction, let’s first give you context of what de minimis shipments are and who leveraged them. 

Under the de minimis rule, shipments valued under $800 could enter the U.S. duty-free and without customs inspections—a loophole widely used by e-commerce giants. In 2024 alone, U.S. Customs and Border Protection processed more than 1.3 billion such shipments, up from just over 1 billion in 2023 and nearly 10 times the volume seen in 2015. 

According to a recent congressional report, fast-fashion retailers like Shein and Temu were major beneficiaries, accounting for an estimated 30% of these packages.

Now, back to the reaction — and it was immediate.

Both Temu and Shein announced price hikes in near-identical statements earlier this month, with changes taking effect on April 25. The reason? A sharp rise in operating costs due to the end of the de minimis loophole and the imposition of new U.S. tariffs on low-value Chinese imports.

“Due to recent changes in global trade rules and tariffs, our operating expenses have gone up,” read the message to customers. “To keep offering the products you love without compromising on quality, we will be making price adjustments.”

And “adjustments” is putting it mildly. Shein hiked prices on some U.S. listings by up to 377%, while Temu began tagging on “import charges” at checkout.

America First Trade Policy

Action: On January 20, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order reviving the “America First” trade policy, signaling a renewed push for domestic manufacturing, industrial independence, and the reshoring of critical supply chains.

Reaction: Decades of offshoring and trade liberalization have made the United States’ manufacturing sector a ghost of its past. In the 1970s, 19.5 million Americans worked in manufacturing. Today, that number has shrunk to under 13 million, accounting for just 8% of all non-farm jobs, while the services sector dominates at 86%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Now in his second term, President Trump is betting on tariffs as leverage to bring manufacturing back home. His administration argues that tariffs, combined with aggressive trade negotiations and targeted incentives, can tilt the playing field toward U.S. production.

Critics say it's protectionist déjà vu. But one thing is clear: the capital is pouring in.

NVIDIA, Apple, and TSMC each pledged between $100 billion and $ 500 billion to build out AI infrastructure and domestic chipmaking capabilities. 

Merck, Eli Lilly, Roche, Johnson & Johnson, and Thermo Fisher have committed billions to expand pharmaceutical production and research on U.S. soil. 

Meanwhile, legacy manufacturers like Hyundai, Stellantis, and GE Aerospace are funneling $5–21 billion each into steel, EV parts, and next-gen assembly lines.

Trump is also eyeing a revival of the U.S. shipbuilding industry. His administration has proposed new fees on Chinese-built and-flagged vessels entering U.S. ports — a calculated move to loosen Beijing’s grip on global shipbuilding and maritime logistics. 

What’s next

“We're here tonight in the heartland of our nation to celebrate the most successful first 100 days of any administration in the history of our country,” President Trump declared at Macomb Community College in Warren, Michigan.

The choice of location does not seem coincidental. Detroit, the former capital of U.S. manufacturing, serves as the perfect backdrop for Trump’s message: revive American manufacturing, no matter the cost.

But that revival carries risk. The global supply chains are left to scramble — the tariffs have created a cloud of uncertainty that’s engulfing businesses both small and big. Rebuilding industrial strength shouldn’t come at the expense of economic stability. If tariffs drive up prices on everyday goods, squeeze small businesses, and choke off global partnerships, the cost of "America First" may be felt most by the very Americans it aims to protect.

This newsletter was written by Shyam Gowtham

Thank you for reading. We’ll see you at the next edition!