Good morning,

A little heads-up for Amazon sellers! Black Friday and Cyber Monday are fast approaching, and the deadlines to get holiday inventory into Amazon’s network are closing in.

Amazon’s deadline for FBA shipments using minimal shipment splits is October 21, followed by October 28 for shipments using Amazon-optimized shipment splits. Missing these deadlines could leave inventory unprocessed in time for the holiday rush

Let’s dive into today’s edition.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects U.S. holiday retail sales to reach $1.01 trillion in November and December 2026, up 4.2% from last year’s $972 billion. However, higher prices are expected to account for about half of the projected growth, with higher-income households driving much of the spending.

Key Details: Rising fuel prices and persistent inflation are squeezing lower-income consumers, prompting shoppers to trade down to cheaper brands, start holiday shopping earlier, and rely more on credit cards and buy-now-pay-later plans. Meanwhile, stronger spending by wealthier households is helping sustain overall demand despite weak consumer confidence.

Big Picture: Other forecasts point to continued growth, with Mastercard projecting a 5.5% increase in holiday sales and Adobe expecting U.S. online sales to reach $275 billion, up 6.7%. The outlook suggests retailers could see a strong peak season, but much of the headline growth may reflect inflation rather than higher sales volumes.

UPS’ Happy Returns has integrated its box-free, label-free returns service into TikTok Shop, letting shoppers start returns on the platform and drop off items at one of 10,000 locations nationwide. The items are consolidated at Return Bars, including locations at The UPS Store, Ulta Beauty and Staples, before moving through UPS’ network back to sellers.

Key Details: Retailers including Pacsun, Everlane and Windsor are adopting the service ahead of the post-holiday returns surge. The integration works for both seller-fulfilled orders and Fulfilled by TikTok shipments, although seller-fulfilled merchants must complete setup.

Happy Returns says the service is best suited to merchants processing around 10,000 or more returns annually, particularly in apparel, footwear and accessories.

Big Picture: The partnership marks Happy Returns’ first direct integration with a commerce platform rather than individual retailers’ websites. It gives TikTok Shop its only box-free, label-free returns option, as merchants seek to improve convenience while controlling reverse-logistics costs and returns fraud.

GOFO Express has raised $100 million to expand its last-mile parcel delivery operations across the United States, adding fresh capital to a young carrier operating in an increasingly competitive corner of the logistics market.

Backstory: Founded in 2023, the U.S. delivery provider secured the funding from Freshwave Fund, HH Hawthorn Fund, Gaorong Ventures, and Hillhouse Investment, according to Dealroom. The round size is notable for a company barely three years old.

Big Picture: GOFO's funding announcement also points to a broader trend in U.S. logistics: Chinese-linked companies expanding into domestic parcel delivery as cross-border e-commerce platforms and merchants seek faster, more economical ways to move goods to American consumers.

Hermès is shifting its U.S. retail expansion toward wealthy suburbs and smaller cities, targeting affluent consumers closer to home rather than relying exclusively on flagship stores in major metropolitan areas.

Target Locations: The French luxury brand is pursuing markets such as Short Hills, New Jersey, Wilmette, Illinois, Nashville, and Austin, which luxury retail executives increasingly describe as emerging markets.

Key Details: The strategy is guided partly by ZIP code-level data that helps the company identify pockets of growing affluence. A recent store opening in an open-air shopping center in Wilmette illustrates the shift toward suburban locations, bringing the brand closer to customers who might otherwise travel to major luxury retail destinations.

Big Picture: The expansion comes as luxury brands face competitive pressure and slower growth in traditional markets, including China. The U.S. has remained a comparatively resilient market for Hermès, making affluent suburban consumers an important opportunity for growth beyond established luxury shopping districts.

U.S. consumers are growing uneasy as retailers and restaurant chains increasingly use AI-assisted pricing tools, digital shelf labels, and algorithms to determine prices.

What’s Happening: Digital price tags are spreading across major retailers, including Walmart and Whole Foods, making price changes easier to implement. Walmart CEO John Furner says the labels are designed to keep prices accurate, not adjust them based on individual shoppers or conditions such as weather.

However, the technology has raised fears that retailers could eventually introduce surge pricing or charge different customers different amounts.

Legal Moves: Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, with lawmakers in at least 30 states considering pricing-related legislation this year. The Federal Trade Commission has also proposed an enforcement policy warning businesses that failing to disclose the use of personal data to set individualized prices could violate consumer protection law.

Big Picture: AI-assisted pricing is already spreading across businesses: a Simon-Kucher survey found that 41% of more than 2,200 business leaders surveyed used AI to gather market intelligence, including competitor prices, while 28% used it for real-time price optimization.

Amazon is closing an unspecified number of retailer-specific grocery storefronts on Amazon.com as it simplifies its online grocery experience and shifts its partnerships toward other services. The company said it will direct customers to alternative grocery shopping options as it phases out individual storefronts. The company has not identified the affected retailers.

Key Details: The existing program allowed grocers, including Winn-Dixie, Metropolitan Markets and Weis Markets in the U.S., to sell groceries through dedicated Amazon storefronts.

Amazon said separate storefronts created inconsistent fees, delivery windows, and checkout experiences. The transition will affect a limited number of employees, whom Amazon says it will help find other internal roles.

Rather than ending its relationships with grocery partners entirely, Amazon is exploring other collaborations, including hosting Amazon Lockers and return points in stores, co-locating operations with retailers, and providing AWS infrastructure for e-commerce, supply chain and data analytics.

Albertsons is seeking more than $9.3 billion in damages from Kroger over the collapse of their proposed $24.6 billion merger, which would have created the largest U.S. grocery chain.

The dispute is heading to a two-week trial in Delaware Chancery Court later this month, nearly two years after a federal judge blocked the deal in December 2024.

What Happened: Albertsons alleges Kroger breached the merger agreement by failing to use its “best efforts” to secure regulatory approval, including by refusing to make additional divestitures. Its claim includes a premium that shareholders would have received had the merger closed, a $600 million termination fee, $75 million in interest, and other costs.

Key Details: The companies had planned to sell hundreds of stores to C&S Wholesale Grocers to address antitrust concerns. However, a federal judge sided with the Federal Trade Commission, ruling that the proposed divestiture plan was insufficient. The merger was intended to strengthen the grocers’ ability to compete with Walmart, Amazon and other rivals.

Amazon has warned it could close 15 last-mile facilities across New York City and move thousands of delivery jobs out of the city if the proposed Delivery Protection Act becomes law.

Key Details: The bill, backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, would require Amazon to directly employ more than 5,000 delivery drivers who currently work for independent contractors. The closures could also eliminate 2,000 internal warehouse jobs at the facilities.

Amazon’s delivery model relies on independent Delivery Service Partners, and the legislation could put roughly 40 local delivery businesses at risk. Those operators employ the city’s 5,000 Amazon drivers, with some owners warning that a shift to direct employment would force them to shut down.

Supporters of the bill say it would improve wages and safety standards across delivery providers, including FedEx and DoorDash.

We worked on a deep dive on this topic a few weeks back. Check out CrossDock’s full coverage here.