Good morning.

Tesla has taken a major step toward reshaping the U.S. battery supply chain. The company says its Texas lithium refinery is now operational, making it the first facility in North America to convert raw spodumene ore directly into battery-grade lithium hydroxide at scale.

The milestone positions Tesla to reduce reliance on foreign lithium processing, cut costs, and secure a critical input for electric vehicles and energy storage as global competition for battery materials intensifies.

Let’s dive into today’s edition.

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President Donald Trump is holding off on immediate tariffs on imports of critical minerals, opting instead to pursue negotiations with foreign suppliers after a months-long national security probe.

Key Details: A Commerce Department investigation under Section 232 concluded that imports of processed critical minerals and their derivatives pose risks to U.S. security, given their central role in defense systems, energy infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing.

What’s Next? Rather than imposing blanket levies, the administration plans to strike agreements with trading partners to shore up supply chains and reduce dependence on adversarial producers. The proclamation introduces the idea of price floors or minimum import prices — a more targeted tool than traditional tariffs.

Bipartisan Efforts: Separately, a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has introduced legislation to establish a $2.5 billion Strategic Resilience Reserve for critical minerals, aimed at stabilizing prices and reducing dependence on China-dominated supply chains.

Amazon Web Services has struck a deal with Rio Tinto to source copper from an Arizona mine for use in its U.S. data centers, becoming the first customer for metal produced using the mining company’s Nuton bioleaching technology.

What’s the deal? Under a two-year arrangement, AWS will use copper produced at the Johnson Camp mine in Arizona, operated by Gunnison Copper, where Rio Tinto is a strategic partner.

The metal is extracted using Nuton, a process that relies on microorganisms to separate copper from ore, thereby avoiding traditional smelting and reducing environmental impact. AWS will also provide cloud-based data and analytics to help optimize the technology’s performance.

Broader Outlook: The agreement comes as copper prices sit near record highs and fears of a supply crunch intensify. For Rio Tinto, Amazon’s backing serves as a high-profile validation of its Nuton technology.

China recorded the largest trade surplus in history in 2025, with exports exceeding imports by $1.19 trillion, even as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs disrupted global trade. It marked the first time China’s annual surplus crossed the $1 trillion threshold, surpassing the previous record of $993 billion set in 2024.

Plan B: While trade with the United States weakened under the weight of tariffs, China offset those losses with stronger exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America, and parts of Europe.

Monthly surpluses topped $100 billion seven times last year, underscoring how limited the overall impact of U.S. trade measures has been on China’s global export machine. Officials also pointed to rising shipments of green technology, AI-related products, and robotics.

Deeper Problems: The surplus was amplified by weak domestic demand, driven by China’s property slump, high debt levels and cautious consumers, which kept import growth to just 0.5%.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is preparing to sharply expand its already massive U.S. footprint, signaling that its $165 billion investment in America — centered on Arizona — is likely to grow further as demand for artificial-intelligence chips surges.

Chip Plants: The company plans to build a “gigafab cluster” in the state, has moved up the timeline for its second Arizona plant to 2027, has accelerated construction of a third, and has begun permitting for a fourth. To accommodate the expansion, TSMC recently acquired an additional 900 acres of land in addition to its original site.

The production push coincides with a new U.S.–Taiwan trade deal that caps U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese goods and encourages large-scale investment in American semiconductor manufacturing. While TSMC says its expansion is driven by customer demand rather than trade negotiations.

Soaring silver prices are intensifying financial pressure on solar panel makers already grappling with more than two years of losses. Spot silver has surged above $90 an ounce, more than tripling over the past year, sharply lifting production costs for an industry still reeling from overcapacity and bruising price wars.

Important Element: The metal now accounts for nearly 30% of a solar panel's cost, up from just 3% in 2023, according to BloombergNEF. With little room left to absorb higher input costs, manufacturers — particularly in China, the world’s largest solar market — have begun raising module prices, even as demand remains fragile.

To cope, solar companies are accelerating efforts to substitute silver with cheaper materials such as copper, a shift that could reshape panel design but carries long-term risks. While reduced silver use may eventually ease pressure on supply, the near-term impact is clear: higher costs, thinner margins, and renewed uncertainty for an industry critical to the global energy transition.

Canada and China agreed to expand cooperation on energy trade and investment, signaling a thaw in relations as Ottawa looks to diversify export markets amid rising U.S. trade tensions. Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled a framework during a visit to Beijing that opens the door to greater oil, gas, nuclear, and clean-energy collaboration, alongside a new ministerial dialogue.

Enter Chinese EVs: Carney announced that Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into the domestic market under a preferential tariff rate of 6.1%. In contrast, in 2024, and at the urging of the Joe Biden administration, Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles to curb imports.

Agri Deal: In exchange, China will cut tariffs on Canadian canola seed to a combined rate of about 15%, down from roughly 85%, delivering rapid relief to one of Canada’s most important agricultural sectors.

Intermodal and drayage provider STG Logistics filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on January 12, saying it will continue normal operations while restructuring its finances.

What’s Happening? The Ohio-based company and 64 affiliates filed in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New Jersey and secured $150 million in debtor-in-possession financing to fund payroll, vendor payments, and day-to-day operations during the process.

STG accumulated significant debt following its $710 million acquisition of XPO Logistics’ North American intermodal business in 2022, a deal that expanded its national footprint but left the company exposed as freight volumes softened and pricing weakened across trucking and rail.

What’s Next? Under a restructuring support agreement with lenders and equity sponsors, STG expects to eliminate roughly 91% of its outstanding debt, reduce interest expenses, and improve liquidity. The company said it plans to emerge from Chapter 11 within about five months.

Maersk announced it would resume using the Red Sea and the Suez Canal for one of its major shipping services later this month, a significant step toward restoring a key global trade route that has largely been avoided for more than two years due to security risks.

Key Details: Maersk said its weekly MECL service, which links the Middle East and India with the U.S. East Coast, would begin transiting the Suez Canal again starting Jan. 26, with a sailing from the port of Salalah in Oman. The route can cut transit times by up to a week compared with voyages around the Cape of Good Hope.

The announcement sent the Danish shipping giant’s shares down more than 5 percent, reflecting expectations that freight rates could ease as vessels return to the shorter route.

President Donald Trump has enacted a 25% tariff on certain advanced computing chips, including Nvidia’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X, citing national security concerns under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. The move targets high-end chips central to artificial intelligence and data center infrastructure, placing new costs on key parts of the global semiconductor supply chain.

The Caveat: Chips imported to support U.S. manufacturing and supply-chain expansion may be exempt, though the White House has not explained how that exemption would work. The administration also warned that broader semiconductor tariffs could follow, suggesting this move may be the first step in a broader push to restrict chip imports.

Big Picture: The decision reinforces Trump’s push to re-shore chip manufacturing and assert U.S. dominance in AI, while keeping pressure on China through trade controls rather than outright bans.