Good morning.

The packaging industry is facing a fresh squeeze as rising fuel and freight costs tied to the Middle East conflict collide with slowing consumer demand and weaker e-commerce volumes. Corrugated box shipments in 2025 fell to their lowest level in a decade, according to the Fibre Box Association.

Now producers are raising prices while simultaneously dealing with falling order volumes. Smurfit Westrock expects the energy shock alone to add up to $290 million in costs this year, as several packaging plants across the industry have already shut down amid deteriorating demand.

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Amazon is expanding deeper into healthcare retail and pharmaceutical distribution by adding Ozempic pills to its pharmacy kiosks and offering same-day delivery across thousands of U.S. locations.

Fast Delivery: The company said customers with prescriptions will be able to order the diabetes treatment through Amazon Pharmacy for as little as $25 with insurance or roughly $149 per month in cash payments. Same-day delivery will initially cover about 3,000 locations in the U.S., with Amazon planning to expand that footprint to 4,500 by the end of the year.

Why does this matter? The move builds on Amazon’s broader push into GLP-1 medications, one of the fastest-growing categories in healthcare. Amazon has stocked Wegovy since January and recently added rival weight-loss treatments from Eli Lilly.

Big Picture: According to Amazon, roughly half of its U.S. customers already have access to same-day pharmacy delivery, while all customers can receive medications within four days. The company invested more than $4 billion last year to expand delivery infrastructure as it pushes further into healthcare logistics, prescription fulfillment, and rural pharmacy access.

The U.S. Department of Justice has confirmed a major antitrust investigation into the U.S. cattle and beef industry, intensifying scrutiny of a highly concentrated market where four companies now control more than 85% of the country’s beef processing capacity.

What’s happening? The investigation is examining potential collusion, including price-fixing, bid-rigging, and market allocation practices involving major processors such as JBS, National Beef, Cargill, and Tyson Foods. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins noted that the top processors controlled just 25% of the market in 1977, compared with more than 85% today.

Big Picture: The investigation comes as beef prices remain near record highs. Average ground beef prices in U.S. cities reached roughly $6.70 per pound in March, adding pressure to already strained food inflation.

Shopify reported another quarter of strong revenue growth but warned that rising operating expenses and heavier reliance on lower-margin merchant services could pressure profitability in the months ahead.

Key Stats: Revenue climbed 34% year over year to $3.17 billion in the first quarter, beating analyst expectations, while gross merchandise volume processed through Shopify’s platform surpassed $100 billion for the first time, rising from $74.75 billion a year earlier. Subscription revenue increased to $750 million, while merchant solutions—the company’s larger but lower-margin segment—grew to $2.42 billion.

Increased Expenses: Despite the growth, Shopify’s second-quarter profit outlook disappointed investors. The company said operating expenses are expected to remain elevated at 35% to 36% of revenue as it continues investing in marketing, platform expansion, and AI capabilities. Shares fell more than 9% following the guidance.

Tapestry reported a strong third quarter as surging demand for Coach handbags and footwear helped drive double-digit growth across North America and China, highlighting the continued strength of premium accessible luxury brands among younger consumers.

Key Stats: Revenue rose 19% year over year to $1.9 billion in the quarter ended March 28, while direct-to-consumer sales climbed 23%, including 25% growth in digital channels and 20% growth in physical stores. Gross margin also improved to 76.9%, reflecting stronger full-price selling and reduced promotional activity.

Revenue Driver: Coach remained the primary growth engine, with revenue jumping 29% to $1.7 billion. The brand saw particularly strong momentum in Greater China, where sales surged 58%, alongside 27% growth in both North America and Europe. Tapestry said it acquired 2.4 million new customers globally during the quarter, with Gen Z shoppers accounting for 35% of those additions.

Inspire Brands, the owner of Dunkin', Arby's, Jimmy John's, and Buffalo Wild Wings, has confidentially filed for a U.S. initial public offering as the consumer IPO market begins reopening after a weak 2025.

Backstory: The Atlanta-based company operates more than 33,000 restaurants globally and was formed in 2018 by private equity firm Roark Capital. Inspire significantly expanded its footprint in 2020 through its $11.3 billion acquisition of Dunkin’ Brands — one of the largest restaurant deals in recent years.

What’s happening? According to reports, the IPO could raise roughly $2 billion. Inspire said proceeds from the offering would primarily be used to repay debt, though pricing details and the number of shares have not yet been disclosed.

Big Picture: The filing reflects improving sentiment in the consumer listings market despite persistent concerns around inflation and slowing discretionary spending. Several retail and consumer-focused companies—including Bob’s Discount Furniture, Yesway, and Jersey Mike’s—have either gone public or confidentially filed for IPOs this year as investors cautiously return to the sector.

Nike is facing a proposed class-action lawsuit accusing the company of raising prices to offset Trump-era tariffs while failing to commit to returning those costs to consumers now that federal tariff refunds are becoming available.

Key Details: The lawsuit, filed in federal court in Oregon, alleges Nike could effectively recover the same tariff costs twice — first through higher consumer prices and again through refunds claimed from the federal government. Nike previously disclosed it paid roughly $1 billion in tariffs on imported goods, while plaintiffs claim the company raised footwear prices by $5 to $10 and apparel prices by $2 to $10 to offset those expenses.

Who gets the refund? The dispute stems from the recent court-ordered refund process following the U.S. Supreme Court's invalidation of portions of President Donald Trump’s IEEPA-based tariffs. Under the new system, only companies that acted as the “importer of record” can directly claim refunds from U.S. Customs and Border Protection — not consumers who ultimately absorbed the higher prices.

New retail construction completions across the U.S. have fallen to their lowest level in at least two decades, underscoring how high costs and labor shortages are severely constraining new store development even as investor demand for retail real estate rebounds.

Number Game: According to CBRE, retail construction completions totaled just 4.7 million square feet in the first quarter of 2026—the weakest quarterly delivery volume since the firm began tracking the data in 2005. By comparison, quarterly retail completions surpassed 25 million square feet at the sector’s peak in late 2015.

Bad Time: Developers continue facing elevated financing costs, expensive materials, and persistent labor shortages, making new retail projects increasingly difficult to justify economically. At the same time, retailer bankruptcies are adding space back into the market.

Positive Signs: Despite the slowdown in development, U.S. retail property sales volume reached $66.8 billion in 2025, up 35% year over year, as investors increasingly target grocery-anchored centers, neighborhood retail, and single-tenant net-lease assets.

U.S. consumer sentiment dropped to a fresh record low in May as rising fuel costs, inflation fears, and tariff concerns continued to weigh on household finances and dampen spending confidence.

Low Point: According to the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey, the consumer sentiment index fell to 48.2 in May from 49.8 in April, while the current economic conditions gauge dropped to a record low of 47.8. Consumers’ views of their personal financial situation also fell to the weakest level since 2009.

Cause and Effect: The deterioration comes as inflation pressures intensify across key household categories. U.S. gasoline prices climbed above $4.50 per gallon for the first time since 2022 and are up more than 50% since the start of the Iran conflict, according to AAA data cited in the report.

About one-third of survey respondents spontaneously mentioned fuel prices as a major concern, while roughly 30% cited tariffs.

Victoria's Secret has publicly accused one of its largest investors of launching a disruptive proxy fight after the retailer twice rejected his bid for a board seat, escalating a governance battle as the company attempts to stabilize operations and revive growth.

The Plot: The dispute centers on Australian billionaire Brett Blundy and his investment firm BBRC International, which began building a stake in the lingerie retailer in 2022 and has privately pushed for strategic and board-level changes since 2024.

Victoria’s Secret says BBRC is now urging shareholders to withhold votes against two directors at the company’s upcoming annual meeting after Blundy was denied a board position.

Conflict of Interest: Victoria’s Secret said it rejected Blundy’s board bid over “reputational, legal, conflict of interest and governance risks,” adding that compromise talks broke down because he insisted on securing a direct board seat.