Good morning.

America’s parcel delivery industry has a new leader — FedEx has overtaken UPS to become the most valuable parcel carrier in the U.S.

FedEx’s market value reached about $84.9 billion, narrowly surpassing UPS at $84.86 billion, marking the first time the Memphis-based company has taken the top spot. The shift reflects diverging fortunes in the logistics industry, as investors reward FedEx’s cost-cutting plans and restructuring efforts.

Let’s dive into today’s edition.

The United States is set to build its first new oil refinery in 50 years, backed by investment from India’s Reliance Industries. The project, announced by President Donald Trump, will be located at the Port of Brownsville in Texas and is expected to process large volumes of domestic shale oil.

What’s the Deal? President Trump described the initiative as a $300 billion energy project, calling it one of the largest investments in U.S. history. The refinery will process 100% American shale oil, strengthening domestic energy supply chains and boosting refining capacity at a time when the U.S. has abundant light shale production but limited facilities designed to handle it.

Big Picture: The project also comes as global oil markets remain volatile due to the conflict involving Iran. The refinery is expected to process 1.2 billion barrels of shale oil over time and produce 50 billion gallons of refined fuel products, supporting energy security and long-term fuel supply in the United States.

The United States has launched new trade investigations into 60 economies to determine whether governments are failing to prevent imports of goods made with forced labor.

What’s the Probe? The probes are being conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a law that allows the U.S. to impose tariffs or other trade penalties on countries deemed to be engaging in unfair trade practices.

Target Countries: The investigations target several major trading partners, including China, the European Union, India, and Mexico. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the move aims to assess whether foreign governments are doing enough to block forced-labor goods from entering their markets and to protect American workers and businesses.

What's Next: The new probes could ultimately lead to fresh tariffs or trade restrictions if countries are found to be violating labor standards. Officials also signaled that these actions may replace some reciprocal tariffs that were recently struck down by the courts.

The Trump administration is weighing a temporary waiver of the Jones Act to ease fuel and agricultural shipments between U.S. ports amid surging energy prices and the war in Iran.

What’s the Jones Act? The century-old law requires cargo moved between American ports to travel on ships that are U.S.-built, U.S.-flagged, and largely U.S.-crewed — a rule that significantly limits the number of vessels available for domestic shipping.

Next Steps: Officials said the waiver, which could last around 30 days, may be announced soon to help counter supply disruptions and rising transportation costs. Suspending the rule would allow foreign-flagged ships to transport fuel within the U.S., potentially speeding deliveries and lowering logistics costs for energy and agricultural products.

Lower ocean freight rates are starting to pressure the finances of major container carriers such as CMA CGM and ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, reflecting a broader downturn across the global shipping industry. The decline comes as global container shipping capacity continues to outpace demand, pushing spot rates sharply lower.

Big Hit: According to Drewry’s World Container Index, average container freight rates have dropped about 23% year over year to roughly $1,958 per 40-foot container. The drop hit carriers’ earnings in the fourth quarter, with CMA CGM’s maritime revenue falling nearly 12% to $6.3 billion, while ZIM’s revenue declined 32% to $1.5 billion.

Mixed Results: Despite the weaker pricing environment, cargo volumes showed mixed trends. CMA CGM transported 6.25 million TEUs, up about 5% from a year earlier, while ZIM saw volumes fall nearly 9%.

Industry executives warn that freight rates will likely remain volatile in 2026, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and shifting shipping routes continue to reshape global trade flows.

Imports at the Port of Los Angeles climbed in February as companies rushed to move goods before factory shutdowns during the Lunar New Year.

Record Numbers: Total container traffic at the port increased nearly 3% year over year, making it the second-busiest February on record for the nation’s largest trade gateway.

Number Game: Dockworkers handled about 824,323 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) during the month. Import volumes reached 433,812 TEUs, a 5% increase from February 2025, while exports rose 7% to 116,633 TEUs.

Despite steady cargo flows, port officials warned that global trade faces growing uncertainty due to shifting tariff policies under Donald Trump and disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.

The United States is working with the European Union and Japan to launch a new trade framework for critical minerals designed to counter China’s dominance in the sector.

Key Details: The talks are being led by the U.S. Trade Representative, with negotiations expected to begin formally in April after a public comment period ends on March 19. Officials say the agreement will likely cover strategic minerals such as rare earths, cobalt, lithium, and graphite, which are essential for technologies ranging from EV batteries to defense systems.

Better Prices: The proposed deal could include price floors and tariffs on key minerals, ensuring producers receive a minimum price and preventing cheaper Chinese exports from undercutting Western supply chains.

The plan is part of a broader effort by Western economies to diversify supply chains and secure access to critical materials after China imposed sweeping export controls last year.

Demand for large warehouses in the U.S. is rising again after several years of weak leasing activity. Companies signed 146 leases for warehouses larger than 500,000 square feet in 2025, a 31% increase from 2024, according to real-estate firm Cushman & Wakefield.

Rise and Fall: Warehouse vacancy rates rose as new supply flooded the market, climbing from a pandemic-era low of 3.3% in Q2 2022 to nearly 11% in Q4 2024, but have since eased to 9.5% by late 2025 as leasing demand recovered and developers slowed new construction, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

Demand Drivers: Renewed demand is driven by third-party logistics providers expanding fulfillment networks, manufacturers reshoring production, and suppliers supporting the fast-growing data center construction boom. Retailers outsourcing logistics operations are also contributing to the surge in large distribution space

The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has left more than 20 ships carrying nearly 1 million metric tons of fertilizer stranded in the Gulf, raising fears of supply shortages.

Stuck in the Strait: Data from Kpler shows that at least 21 vessels loaded with urea, sulfur, and phosphates are unable to transit the route, with many shipments destined for Asian markets such as India and China. The cargo includes roughly 463,000 tons of urea and over 300,000 tons of sulfur.

Big Picture: More than 30% of global urea exports and over half of sulfur shipments pass through Hormuz. A prolonged disruption could sharply tighten fertilizer supplies, pushing prices higher and raising concerns about food security and agricultural costs across Asia.

Home Impact: Fertilizer prices for U.S. farmers have jumped about 30% since the Iran conflict began, raising input costs just as the spring planting season approaches. As a result, some farmers are expected to shift acreage from corn to soybeans, which require less nitrogen fertilizer, potentially lowering corn yields.

The U.S. trade deficit shrank 25.3% to $54.5 billion in January, as exports surged to a record $302.1 billion, according to data from the U.S. Commerce Department. The improvement was driven by strong shipments of industrial supplies, capital goods, and precious metals.

Goods exports rose 8.1% to $195.5 billion, while imports slipped 0.7% to $356.6 billion, helping narrow the trade gap more than economists expected. Capital goods exports, including computers and aircraft, also reached a record high.

Economists say if the trend continues, trade could contribute to U.S. economic growth in the first quarter, though data have remained volatile amid sweeping tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump.