Trump Tariff Refunds Could Hit $1 Trillion 💰

London-based Anglo American and Canada’s Teck Resources unveiled plans to merge in a deal valued at more than $53 billion, forming the world’s fifth-largest copper producer. The all-stock transaction, announced Tuesday, will see Anglo shareholders hold 62.4% of the new entity, Anglo Teck, with Teck shareholders owning 37.6%.

🤝 Deal of the equals: Both firms said the merger would create a “true merger of equals,” pooling their adjacent copper assets in Chile, including Teck’s Quebrada Blanca and Anglo’s Collahuasi mines.

⏳ Waiting period: Teck’s CEO, Jonathan Price, said the regulatory approval for the deal is expected to take 12 to 18 months.

💰Past offers: Anglo previously rejected a $53 billion takeover bid from BHP last year, while Teck turned down Glencore’s $22.5 billion offer in 2023.

Why is this important? The deal comes amid rising global demand for copper, driven by the energy transition, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence.

China’s Ministry of Commerce has warned Mexico against raising tariffs on Asian-made cars, particularly those from China, to 50%, threatening “necessary countermeasures” if the plan proceeds.

The proposed hike, announced by Mexico’s economy minister Marcelo Ebrard, would increase duties from the current 20%.

🚪Closing the back door: The move is aimed at protecting tens of thousands of local manufacturing jobs. But analysts say it’s also meant to ease pressure from President Donald Trump, who has warned Mexico not to become a “back door” for Chinese goods entering the U.S.

💵 Big investments: Between June 2022 and July 2024, over 20 Chinese automakers and parts suppliers announced investments totaling more than $7 billion in Mexico, according to the Coalition for a Prosperous America.

⏱️ Tariff time: Mexico is also moving to impose higher tariffs on more than 1,400 product categories from countries without a trade agreement, a step that would affect about $52 billion (€44 billion) worth of imports.

The future of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs now hangs in the balance with the Supreme Court after two federal courts ruled many of the tariffs illegal. Trump has asked the justices to fast-track a decision, warning that delaying until next summer — the usual timetable — could worsen the fallout.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned that if the high court upholds the lower rulings, the U.S. could be forced to refund between $750 billion and $1 trillion to importers. That includes the $72 billion already collected since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs took effect and projected revenues through June.

Refunding tariffs on such a scale would be unprecedented. Trade lawyers warn the process could be messy, with companies required to file detailed claims and brokers bracing for a flood of paperwork. Some firms are already exploring selling refund rights to third parties, betting on a Supreme Court reversal.

CMA CGM said it will not add surcharges on U.S.-bound shipments affected by new port docking fees that take effect Oct. 14 on Chinese-built and -operated vessels. The French carrier announced contingency measures to maintain service levels as the U.S. Trade Representative imposes a $50-per-net-ton fee on Chinese operators, with annual increases through 2028. CMA CGM, whose fleet is less than half Chinese-built, will face a lower $18-per-ton fee.

Other carriers are also adjusting. Maersk has indicated it will limit exposure by keeping Chinese-built ships off U.S. routes. Chinese operators, however, face the steepest risk. COSCO and its subsidiary OOCL could together pay more than $2.1 billion in fees in 2026 without network changes, according to HSBC. Beijing and COSCO have condemned the levies as “discriminatory,” warning of their financial impact.

U.S. railroads saw a notable drop in traffic for the week ending Sept. 6, with total volume down 2.4% from the same week in 2024, according to the Association of American Railroads. Railroads moved 467,880 carloads and intermodal units, including 214,383 carloads (down 3.5%) and 253,497 containers and trailers (down 1.4%).

It was the steepest weekly decline since late February, when traffic fell 5.1%, and marked the third-largest dip of 2025. Despite the setback, year-to-date traffic remains up 3.3% compared with 2024, led by a 4% increase in intermodal shipments.

Across North America, railroads in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico handled 646,348 units, down 0.7% year over year. Canadian traffic rose 2.2% through 36 weeks, while Mexico reported a 7.5% decline.

Exxon Mobil announced Tuesday it will acquire assets from Superior Graphite, a Chicago-based company, in a bid to start producing graphite for electric vehicle batteries by the end of the decade. The deal includes a production facility, a research center, and related assets, though financial terms were not disclosed.

Graphite, a critical material for battery anodes, has become increasingly important as global demand for EVs grows. The move marks Exxon’s latest step into battery materials, complementing its ongoing project to extract lithium from underground brine in southwest Arkansas.

Exxon, the largest U.S. oil and gas company, has been making small but strategic bets on energy transition materials to balance power grid demand and secure a foothold in the EV supply chain.

ReElement Technologies, a subsidiary of American Resources, has secured $2 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Defense to boost domestic rare earth refining capacity. The award, issued through the DoD’s Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment Program, underscores Washington’s push to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers of critical minerals.

The Indiana-based company operates a modular refining platform capable of separating and purifying both heavy and light rare earths, achieving purity levels above 99.5% for oxides such as neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. These elements are key to advanced magnets used in defense systems and commercial technologies.

Its 42-acre campus in Marion, Indiana, is positioned to help establish a “mine-to-magnet” domestic supply chain by 2027, a key DoD goal. CEO Mark Jensen said ReElement’s technology is already producing rare earths at 99.9% to 99.999% purity for both defense and commercial applications.

President Donald Trump has exempted key minerals — including gold bullion, graphite, tungsten, and uranium — from his sweeping global tariffs, easing concerns in commodity markets. The exemptions, formalized in a Friday executive order, take effect Monday.

The order, however, expands tariffs to cover silicone products, resin, and aluminum hydroxide. The changes also empower the U.S. Trade Representative and Commerce Department to implement trade framework agreements without requiring new executive action, potentially accelerating tariff relief for select goods.

These exemptions are expected to support industries reliant on these critical minerals, including aerospace, medical devices, and electronics.

Mercedes-Benz has signed two long-term supply agreements with South Korea’s LG Energy Solution worth an estimated $11 billion, securing 107 gigawatt hours of EV batteries for the U.S. and EU markets. The contracts include 32 GWh for Europe and 75 GWh for the U.S., with deliveries beginning in 2029 for North America and running through 2037.

The agreements mark LG’s largest order yet for its cylindrical 46-series cells, underscoring Mercedes-Benz’s push to lock in battery supply as tariffs drive up raw material costs. The deal builds on LG’s earlier 50.5 GWh contract with a U.S. Mercedes-Benz affiliate and adds to the company’s growing U.S. footprint with battery plants in Michigan and Arizona.

The contracts also highlight a competitive race among automakers to secure stable, long-term EV battery capacity. Ford and Rivian have struck similar supply deals with LG, while Mercedes-Benz is also investing in recycling initiatives to strengthen its battery supply chain.

U.S. tariff revenue surged to an all-time high of $30 billion in August, a 296% jump from a year earlier, as President Donald Trump’s steep levies continue to pour money into federal coffers. Customs duties so far total $172 billion in fiscal 2025, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent projecting a run rate approaching $500 billion annually by year’s end.

Despite the record inflows, Washington still posted a $345 billion monthly deficit in August, leaving the year-to-date budget gap at $1.97 trillion — the third largest in U.S. history, behind only the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Treasury officials noted September’s strong tax intake could slightly narrow the full-year shortfall, though corporate tax receipts remain under pressure following Trump’s business tax credits.

Demand for U.S. industrial real estate fell in the second quarter of 2025, marking the first quarterly drop in 15 years. According to NAIOP, just 27 million square feet of space was absorbed in the first half of the year, with demand shrinking by 11.3 million square feet in Q2.

The decline is tied to persistent inflation and uncertainty from shifting tariff policies, which have cooled what was once the hottest corner of commercial real estate during the pandemic e-commerce boom. NAIOP expects absorption to remain nearly flat through year-end, with a recovery projected to begin in mid-2026.

For the full year 2026, the group forecasts absorption of 119.3 million square feet, followed by another 109.7 million in the first half of 2027. Industrial property sales are holding steady with 2024 levels, totaling $74.3 billion last year, though still well below the 2021 peak of $129.8 billion.

U.S. ports handled their second-busiest month on record in July, processing 2.36 million TEUs as retailers rushed to front-load goods ahead of tariff deadlines, according to the NRF and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker. The surge was driven by uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, with China granted a temporary tariff reprieve until November and India hit by a 50% tariff in late August.

But the early stocking spree is setting up a sharp downturn: September import volumes are forecast to fall 6.8% year over year to 2.12 million TEUs, dropping further by 13.2% in October and nearly 20% in November. December is projected to be the weakest month since March 2023.

Analysts warn tariffs have distorted the seasonal flow of imports, adding costs for retailers and eroding predictability in supply chains. The full-year outlook now points to 24.7 million TEUs, a 3.4% decline from 2024.