
Spotlight
U.S. Slaps 50% Tariff on India
What began as handshakes and $500 billion trade targets has boiled over into one of the sharpest U.S.–India trade confrontations in decades. President Donald Trump has slapped an extra 25% tariff on Indian imports — taking the total to 50% — in retaliation for New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil. The move lands just months after both leaders promised a “very big” trade deal and comes with a 21-day countdown.
📈 Tariff Hike: On Aug. 6, Trump signed an executive order adding a 25% tariff on Indian goods. New combined rate: 50% — higher than U.S. tariffs on China (30%). India now joins the ranks of America’s most heavily taxed trading partners.
🛢️ Slippery Deals: European nations also import Russian crude, while China — the top buyer — has avoided punitive tariffs. India ranks second in Russian oil imports.
🤜🏻 Counter Attack: India’s foreign ministry swiftly condemned the move, denouncing the additional tariff as “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable.”
🔄 Policy Reversal: Recent tariffs contradict earlier G7 oil price cap push, when allies encouraged India to buy Russian oil at ≤$60/barrel to keep global supplies stable.
✈️ No Deal: India has reportedly put a $3.6 billion Boeing jet purchase from the U.S. on hold after Washington imposed 50% tariffs.
Apple to Invest an Additional $100B in U.S. Manufacturing
Apple is making a fresh $100 billion commitment to expand U.S. manufacturing, a move unveiled with President Donald Trump that signals both an acceleration of its domestic footprint and a strategic hedge against looming trade risks. The plan will bring more of Apple’s supply chain and critical component assembly onshore, even as large-scale iPhone production remains concentrated in India and China.
📦 Supply Chain Shift: According to reports, the new manufacturing program will target high-end products, AI labs, and semiconductor engineering in the U.S., while lower-end device assembly continues overseas.
💵 Bigger Commitment: Brings Apple’s total U.S. investment pledge to $600 billion over four years, including new server manufacturing in Houston, a supplier academy in Michigan, and expanded domestic supplier contracts.
📈 Market Boost: Shares jumped 3.6%, their biggest gain in nearly three months. Analysts say the pledge could “soften” the White House’s criticism of Apple’s reliance on India for iPhone assembly.
✅ Take or Leave: President Donald Trump said he will impose a 100% tariff on computer chips and semiconductors, a move that could raise prices on electronics, cars, and appliances. He added that companies manufacturing in the U.S. “will pay no charge.”
China Opens Market to Brazilian Coffee After US Tariff Hike
China has approved nearly 200 Brazilian companies to export coffee to its domestic market, a move seen as a lifeline for Brazil’s coffee sector after the US imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee. The authorisation, effective July 30 and valid for five years, comes as Chinese demand continues to grow.
The US, the world’s largest coffee consumer, imported 3.3 million bags of Brazilian coffee in the first half of 2025 — about 23% of Brazil’s total exports — but new tariffs taking effect this week are expected to curb shipments. By comparison, China imported 530,000 bags in the same period, a smaller but increasingly important market.
With 85% of Brazil’s 2025 Arabica crop already harvested, exporters are now looking to China to offset potential losses in their key US market.
TLDR
China Exports Surged in July
China’s exports surged 7.2% in July from a year earlier, driven by strong shipments to Southeast Asia, Africa, and the EU — many serving as re-export hubs to the U.S. This growth came ahead of further tariff hikes from President Trump, including a new 40% levy on goods transshipped through other countries.
Direct exports to the U.S. plunged over 20% in July, yet China still exports three times as much to the U.S. as it imports. The U.S. trade deficit with China has narrowed to its lowest in decades, part of a broader drop in America’s overall deficit to $60.2 billion in June.
Exports to the EU rose 12%, while sales to Africa jumped 42.4% — though some African and Southeast Asian nations have raised their own tariffs to avoid being flooded with Chinese goods.
UPS to Match FedEx’s Dimensional Weight Rounding
UPS will adopt a new dimensional weight policy on August 18, rounding any package measurement — length, width, or height — up to the next whole inch. The move mirrors FedEx’s recently announced change and replaces UPS’s current practice of rounding down measurements under half an inch.
The adjustment, which applies to all domestic and international shipments, will increase the calculated cubic volume for many packages, potentially driving up delivery charges without any change in shipment size. Logistics experts warn the change could significantly raise costs for high-volume parcel shippers; one eShipper analysis estimated an extra $32,678 annually for a customer sending 2,500 packages a month.
The update comes amid rising ground shipping rates and new surcharge structures from both UPS and FedEx, adding further pricing pressure on supply chains already managing tariff and cost volatility.
US Services Sector Stalls in July
US services activity barely grew in July, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI slipping to 50.1 from 50.8, missing forecasts for an uptick. New orders edged down to 50.3, export orders fell back into contraction, and employment dropped to 46.4 — its lowest since March — marking four contractions in the past five months.
The slowdown comes amid mounting uncertainty over President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy. With new import duties of 10% to 41% taking effect August 7, Yale’s Budget Lab estimates the average US tariff rate has surged to 18.3% — the highest since 1934. Economists say businesses are struggling to adjust, while price pressures are intensifying: the ISM prices paid index jumped to 69.9, the steepest rise in nearly three years.
Maersk Lifts 2025 Outlook as Demand Outside the US Offsets Tariff Hit
A.P. Moller-Maersk has raised its full-year earnings forecast, citing strong container demand in Europe, Latin America, West-Central Asia, and Africa that has offset a slump in US imports. The Danish shipping giant now expects underlying EBITDA of $8–$9.5 billion, up from $6–$9 billion, with global container volumes projected to grow 2–4% this year.
CEO Vincent Clerc said US trade remains subdued due to tariff uncertainty, but a boom in Chinese manufacturing is driving robust demand elsewhere, creating favorable pricing conditions.
Maersk, which controls about 14% of the world’s container fleet, said protectionist US policies are weighing on global trade, though some shippers have boosted orders ahead of tariff deadlines. The company also expects to benefit from Red Sea diversions for the rest of the year, as longer sailing routes tighten vessel supply and support rates.
Air Cargo Demand Climbs 5% in July
Global air cargo volumes rose 5% year-on-year in July, defying the usual seasonal slowdown, as shippers shifted from ocean to air to avoid looming US tariffs, Xeneta data shows. The uptick followed a modest 1% gain in June and came as capacity grew just 3%, lifting the dynamic load factor back to 58%.
Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw said speed is key for tariff circumvention, with air seen as a faster, less risky option than a 30-day ocean transit. Spot rates fell 2% year-on-year to $2.55/kg, but eased their decline on firmer demand, with a 2% month-on-month rise offering carriers some relief.
The policy backdrop remains volatile, with the US set to end its de minimis exemption for all countries by late August, after removing it for China and Hong Kong in May. That move has already cut China’s low-value exports to the US by 50%. Analysts warn the uncertainty could keep airfreight demand elevated in the short term, even as long-term trade volumes face pressure once tariffs fully take hold.
GM Secures US-Made Rare Earth Magnets from Noveon
General Motors has signed a multi-year supply deal with Noveon Magnetics for rare earth magnets used in its full-size SUVs and trucks. Noveon is the only US-based producer of sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets, the strongest type of permanent magnet in commercial use.
This latest deal, along with GM’s existing contracts with MP Materials Corp and E-Vac Magnetics — a US-based unit of Germany’s Vacuumschmelze — will allow the automaker to source most of its rare-earth magnets domestically.
The agreement comes as China, which controls over 90% of global rare earth processing, tightened export rules in April, heightening supply risks for Western manufacturers. Automakers, especially in the EV sector, are among the largest consumers of rare earth materials, and Ford has also reported production disruptions from limited Chinese supply.
Lineage Cuts Outlook as High Food Prices Drag on Cold Storage Demand
Cold storage operator Lineage Inc. reported a Q2 net loss of $7 million, citing high food prices and tariff uncertainty as key factors weighing on customer inventories and warehouse occupancy. Physical occupancy fell to 74.6%, down 230 basis points year over year, prompting the Michigan-based company to trim its 2025 guidance.
Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) came in at $0.81 per share, up 6 cents from last year, while consolidated revenue rose 1% to $1.35 billion. However, pallets processed dropped 3% year over year, and storage revenue per pallet grew only slightly.
“While we expect continued sequential improvement in both same warehouse and total NOI in the second half, we are taking a more measured view of the balance of the year,” said Lineage President and CEO Greg Lehmkuhl in a news release.
U.S. Farm Trade Deficit Hits Record High
The U.S. agricultural trade deficit reached an unprecedented $28.6 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a sharp reversal from decades of consistent surpluses. USDA data shows that in June alone, exports lagged imports by $4.1 billion, up 14% from last year.
The trade gap has been driven by limited room to expand U.S. crop and livestock output and a rising appetite for imported produce. Trump’s trade wars have also contributed, prompting China — the world’s biggest crop buyer — to turn more to Brazil for supplies.
The growing deficit marks a historic shift for U.S. agriculture, which had posted large trade surpluses for five decades and was once a key foreign policy tool during the Cold War.
FDA Launches ‘PreCheck’ Program to Accelerate US Drug Manufacturing
The US Food and Drug Administration has unveiled the “FDA PreCheck” initiative to speed construction and approval of domestic drug manufacturing plants, part of President Donald Trump’s push to reduce reliance on foreign pharmaceutical production. The program aims to streamline facility reviews and cut unnecessary regulatory steps, with a two-phase process covering early design input through to pre-application feedback.
The move follows a June FDA effort to incentivize drugmakers that align with national priorities, including faster review times for products made in the US. Major firms such as AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, and Johnson & Johnson have pledged billions to expand domestic operations.
The Trump administration has threatened steep tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals — potentially up to 250% — to encourage local production.
Tidbits
A bipartisan group of New England senators introduced the Protecting Public Naval Shipyards Act of 2025 in the U.S. Senate to shield shipyard workers from layoffs and the federal hiring freeze. The bill protects trades, engineers, and apprentices from cuts tied to budget moves or probationary status
Since June 25, more than 1,200 truck drivers have been taken off U.S. roads for failing English-language proficiency tests, according to FMCSA data. The vast majority worked for U.S.-based carriers, with the Western region logging the most violations, followed by the Southern, Midwestern, and Eastern regions.
Australia has agreed to a A$135 mn bailout for Trafigura-owned Nyrstar to prevent the shutdown of the nation’s only lead smelter in Port Pirie and its largest zinc smelter in Hobart.
Toyota cut its full-year operating profit forecast by about $4.1 billion to $21.9 billion, citing the hit from U.S. auto tariffs. The company said tariffs cost roughly $3 billion last quarter and could total $9.5 billion for the year
Two Chinese nationals have been charged in the U.S. with illegally exporting millions of dollars’ worth of Nvidia AI chips, including H100 GPUs, to China via transit hubs in Singapore and Malaysia without export licenses.